Japanese Possibilities for the MLB for 2002-3

Great read, Jim. Thanks for putting in the work. One question: Why would you be reluctant to put up $4.5 million or more a year for Nakamura if you were an MLB GM? Adjusted to your MLB estimates, Nori hit .278/.365/.485 over the past three years -- numbers that are right in line with what MLB All-Stars Scott Rolen (.283/.368/.513) and Mike Lowell (.277/.343/.464) produced across the same span. The Cardinals recently signed Rolen to an eight-year, $90 million contract extension, and Lowell most likely will command a lot more than $4.5 million per year when he qualifies for free agency after 2003.

I don't think Nakamura is worth Rolen dollars, but what's an 850 OPS at third worth? Edgardo Alfonso, who produced an 851 OPS for the Mets in 2002, was paid $5.725 million; Robin Ventura, who produced an 826 OPS for the Yankees in 2002, was paid $8.5 million; World Series MVP Troy Glaus, who produced an 805 OPS for the Angels in 2002, was paid $3.5 million, and he'll earn three times that after he qualifies for free agency. $4.5 or more million a year for Nori sounds all right to me.

Thanks for the kind words. There is one big difference between Nakamura and the players you mentioned: age. At best, Nakamura is at an age where he is likely at the very top of his game, and will only come down. His range afield will also likely suffer. It may not be rapid at first, but it will accelerate. Rolen or any player who has not given up any of his free agent rights is likely not yet at his peak, or at least is not on the downside. If you're talking a one or two year deal, yeah, maybe I'd go for that, but no more than 3 years. I just believe the economics say that Nakamura is more valuable in Japan than he is in the majors at this time. That's why I think he will stay.

Jim Albright

I don't think age is an issue. Nakamura's 29 (7-24-73), Lowell's 28 (2-24-74) and Rolen's 27 (4-4-75), so the three are separated by less than two years. Do you really believe that age will be catching up to Nori by the time he's 32? Rolen will be 35 when his contract with the Cardinals expires.

Quality 3rd baseman are few and far between in the Majors at the moment. Nori's adjusted OPS (.840) was surpassed by only four MLB starters at the hot corner this season -- All-Star Eric Chavez (.844), AL Rookie of the Year Eric Hinske (.850), Edgardo Alfonso (.851) and All-Star Scott Rolen (.853). That's some elite company. Nakamura could be the answer at 3rd for a lot of teams on either side of the Pacific.

The one thing neither of us have touched on is that, in other threads in this site, I have seen Nakamura's alleged market value in Japan as much greater than his current $4.5 million. Third basemen of his quality are rare in Japan, too, and a Japanese player like him can fetch a premium in Japan for staying. I just think that if a were a major league GM, there's little point to getting into a bidding war you are likely to lose either by a Japanese team outbidding you or by paying the player considerably more than he's worth. From the comments I've read, he's a competent third baseman but no more. The others are at least that good (some like Rolen are much better) *and* younger.

Jim Albright

I guess it boils down to how much a solid bat at 3rd base is worth. Yomiuri's offer appears to be 4 years at $6.25 million per year and it looks like Hanshin will counter with 8 years at $4 million per year. Assuming Nakamura would produce at the level you project, neither of those offers are worth more than what Nori would be worth to an MLB club. The Mariners paid Jeff Cirillo $6.125 million for his .629 OPS this year. Talk about a guy getting paid more than he's worth.

If I were a GM in the States with a hole at 3rd and money to spend, I'd offer Nori a 5 year/$25 to $30 million deal with a clear conscience. It might not be enough to lure him to North America. Then again, Ichiro took less money to play in the Majors and I suspect Godzilla will end up doing the same. Why not try?

I agree that the four players I listed in my last post are at least as good as Nakamura and younger, but I only listed *four* players and there are 30 MLB teams. At least half of those 26 could stand to improve at 3rd, and probably 5 or 6 of those have the budget to make a run at Nakamura.

I think 1908-san is right on the money (no pun intended) in his analysis. Another example that might apply here is David Bell, who is attracting a surprising amount of interest already, considering the amount of minor league 3b talent.

Teams like Arizona, which might be better off looking to its own minor league system, will be courting Bell, and there will certainly be teams interested in Nakamura.

According to another thread, Kintetsu has offered Nakamura a 6-year, 3.6 billion yen deal, which is just under $5 million per year at the current rate of exchange, and right in line with the offers outlined above.

For ha's, here's how Nakamura compares to some notable MLB starters at the hot corner -- and Akinori Iwamura, who has a potentially bright future in the Majors as well, IMO. All stats are averaged over the past three seasons, and I adjusted the Japanese players' numbers according to Jim's projections, adding HP for on-base percentage purposes.

Name	Age*	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	BB	HP	AVG	OBP	Slg.	OPS	IsoP
Glaus	26	159	573	150	33	1	39	303	102	5	.262	.378	.529	.907	.267
Nevin	32	133	497	149	27	0	28	260	56	3	.300	.374	.523	.897	.223
Rolen	27	145	539	153	33	5	27	277	66	10	.284	.372	.514	.886	.230
Chavez	25	152	546	153	32	2	31	282	56	2	.280	.349	.516	.866	.236
Alfonzo	29	136	497	146	29	1	19	235	69	6	.294	.386	.473	.859	.179
Nakamura	29	159	590	164	30	1	30	286	85	5	.278	.374	.485	.858	.207
Lowell	29	149	552	153	40	0	21	256	54	8	.277	.350	.464	.814	.187
Ventura	35	141	463	111	20	0	24	203	79	2	.240	.353	.438	.791	.199
Mueller	32	111	379	103	20	3	8	153	47	3	.272	.357	.401	.758	.129
Iwamura	24	158	572	157	28	9	14	245	41	5	.274	.328	.428	.757	.154
Randa	33	153	581	163	33	4	13	242	41	7	.281	.335	.417	.752	.136
Bell	30	141	492	126	27	1	15	202	41	6	.256	.321	.411	.732	.154

* As of Opening Day, 2003.

I posted this somewhere else: is Nori interested in coming to the States? That seems to be a basic question. Matsui, Ichiro, et al wanted to come here. Sure he's making a visit, but does he want to come. And let's also keep this in mind: if he likes it here, his cost of living should be lower.

Another thing: despite the great numbers, it's pretty tough to compare players from one league to another. Though the talent is there, it's still a better comparison to look at Rolen vs. Chavez, etc. than to look at Nori vs. all MLB players.

Lastly, if the M's can dump Cirillo, would Nori give more consideration to them since they clearly have the most comfortable situation for any player coming in from Japan?

Is Nori interested in coming to the States?

I doubt anyone here can read his mind. Time will tell.

Another thing: despite the great numbers, it's pretty tough to compare players from one league to another.

That's what sabermetrics are for: To make the most educated of guesses on how players across different eras, leagues and now, even continents compare to each other. Is it 100% accurate? Of course not, but it's the best method available, IMO.

Lastly, if the M's can dump Cirillo...

LMAO! Good luck. I don't see Cirillo going anywhere unless the M's take someone else's problem contract in return. See Hundley for Karros trade.

Nori quoted in Japan Today:

"I heard the meeting doesn't mean an official offer but the Mets would just like to meet with me. I feel like I'm finally making progress," said Nakamura, who is in New York with his family and agent.

The two-time Pacific League RBI king, who is currently in talks with Kintetsu and the Hanshin Tigers, said he will now probably visit the Mets' home field in hopes of receiving an offer from the National League club.

"I've said from the beginning that it would be best if I could make a decision on destination between playing in Japan and the U.S. I'd like to visit Shea Stadium," the 29-year-old said.

It looks like the Mets have a chance to sign Norihiro Nakamura for two years at $3 million a season plus another $2 million per in incentives. An option for a third year would kick in if he met those incentives. So they'd be risking only $6 million for a potential 900 OPS bat at third. I really wish the Cubs, who haven't had a decent 3rd sacker since Ron Cey, had pursued this, and I think that many, many MLB GM's will be kicking themselves in hindsight.

On NHK news last night, Nori was saying after his third round of negotiations with Hanshin that for him, it comes down to a choice of "chasing my dream, i.e., playing in the majors" or "facing up to reality, which would mean playing in Japan".

Taken alone, that comment implies to me that he is leaning heavily towards going to MLB.

Very interesting! But you seem to have put Ichiro's translations under Shinjo's name as well.

Thanks for both the kind words and bringing that to my attention. The webmaster has been struggling with the formatting to get it to appear properly, and apparently made a wrong insertion. I have called it to his attention.

Jim Albright

Jim:

Great stuff. A couple of minor points:

1. I think the pitcher W/L formula must also have some display problem. As currently displayed, a pitcher's W/L record gets BETTER as his ERA goes up..

2. I know you were not factoring in park adjustments, BUT I think just using the inverse of hitter HR's for pitchers is causing the pitcher HR totals to be too high to the extent that the decrease in HR's from Japan to US and vice versa is due to differences in parks. Just playing around with the numbers, it looks like a 1.28 factor would work better.

THANKS,
KJOK

I don't know how you reached your conclusion about the higher ERA and win percentage unless one of two things happened:
1) You are looking at relievers, who I did not spell out did not have their win/loss records adjusted as much because those records are highly dependent upon the way the pitcher is used, or
2) The difficulty we have had in formatting this stuff for the web is creating a display which confuses you.

As far as the ERA goes, my adjustment is in that range anyway, and, as I said, pitcher records have far less predictive value, and therefore the discrepancies can be largely due to that.

Thanks for reading and thanks for the kind words.

Jim Albright

Jim,

Your article was recently mentioned by Rob Neyer on ESPN.com. Congrats. Welcome to the big time.

[Link]

Thanks. I guess we'll be seeing more traffic at baseballguru soon.

Jim

Jim,

Any idea as to the factor for strikeouts?

As for strikeouts, I simply did not figure them for batters (and I believe other studies have not shown adjustments of this data to be particularly accurate).

As for 2004's possibles, I'm not even going to think about such an article until near the end of the coming season. For one thing, the 2003 data is an essential part of the picture. Also, while we might be able to determine whose contracts are up, etc., we don't know who will sign during the season. Frankly, the article I did included a lot of guys who never got a look by the majors (and some who didn't demonstrate the talent to deserve one). That degree of spinning my wheels is something I can live with. However, spinning my wheels over guys who sign contract extensions during the season is the kind of wheel spinning I have no intention of doing.

In review, any article done now would be incomplete (no 2003 data) and could well involve a lot of wasted effort. Besides, an article on 2004 just isn't timely now. I've got other fish I want to fry first. If you're interested in doing it now, my article tells you how to do the conversions, and I'm sure the people on this list can help assemble a list of 2004 free agents/good candidates for posting.

Sorry for what may seem like a lengthy rant, but until somebody pays me for my articles, I'll write what I want, when I want.

Jim Albright

As for strikeouts, I simply did not figure them for batters (and I believe other studies have not shown adjustments of this data to be particularly accurate).

I see. Out of curiosity, why did you include Ks in your estimates for Oh?

Actually, I somewhat misspoke when I said I didn't do the strikeout data for current players. I won't do conversions in this area any more because 1) strike outs have little or nothing to do with a hitter's productivity, and 2) this article ["Minor League Equivalencies"] suggests that projections of walks and strikeouts aren't very reliable. I'll continue to do walks because they are so essential to evaluating a player's productivity. I did Oh's strikeouts because I was unaware of that article when I did the Oh projection.

However, because I did pitchers, and strikeouts are so critical to evaluating them, I actually did collect that data for 1992-2002. The article gives the pitcher strikeout conversion as 1.054, so the hitter conversion factor, if you wish to use it (I won't recommend it) is the inverse of that (1 divided by 1.054, or 0.949).

Jim Albright

Thanks for the conversion number and thanks for the link to the article, too. I'm not using the strikeouts to measure a hitter's productivity, but to look at a hitter's batting average on balls hit into play (by removing K's and HR's from the equation).

Have you begun an article looking forward to 2004? I'm very excited about seeing Little Matsui over here, but I have no idea who else is a free agent or might be posted. Any ideas? Matsuzaka possibly?

With the 2003 regular season complete, I took a look back at the projections for Matsui. Generally gave a good profile of him as a hitter, but HRs are down. Do you attribute that to special park effects in Yankee Stadium or to susceptibility to some particular pitches?

Will you be re-calibrating the equivalency with another year of data - would love to see it.

And thank you.

You're welcome. Some time after the playoffs end, we'll amass a list of the eligibles, and I'll do an article on the best candidates. However, I doubt much would be gained by adding one more year to the previous ten. It's a fair amount of work, and really, it hasn't changed dramatically since the CL of 1960-80 (which I did for Oh).

You've hit on one point, which is that due to a lack of Japanese park data, I don't do park effects at all. Unless a hitter is a dead-pull lefty, Yankee Stadium is a pretty tough home run park.

Beyond that, the method is an average, and some players adjust at a pace better than average, and some worse. Matsui is either in the below average pace of conversion, or his learning curve is just a little slower to come around. Frankly, a patient power hitter like Matsui benefits a great deal from knowing pitchers and what to look for from them that he can hit. Players like him (see Jim Thome in the NL this year) often lag a little in power and/or average in their first year in a new league. I'd reserve judgment on him until he's well into next year (barring injury), though I will note there have been many comments about his having to adapt to a Major League slider.

Jim Albright