Bobby V. versus SI

Thanks for the links. Interesting article, to say the least. I think Japanese fans will be shocked to see how Bobby rips his own coaches and insults other MLB managers.

I had a chance recently to talk to a former MLBer who played for Bobby V. I asked him what Bobby was like, and he replied, "Well, I didn't really care for him. When you're going good, he acts like your best friend, but when you're not playing good, it's like you don't exist." Why am I not surprised that his former players didn't like him?

Absolutely sickening hit piece. Bobby's arrogance probably rubbed this guy the wrong way, but it is no excuse to create a 10 page hit piece on the guy. Totally unprofessional. I'd be disgusted if anyone in the English speaking yakyu community wrote something that vicious, let alone a professional writer for Sports Illustrated.

I am a hardcore Marines fan. Tsuyoshi did suck last year. He started out stinking this year, too. I'm also a Mariners fan and Hargrove is a terrible manager. He makes the most mindless pitching changes and has wasted Johjima's hits at the #7 spot in the batting order.

Would you rather have someone tell you that you have something on your face before you can go out and embarrass yourself? Or would you rather have that person be polite and let you embarrass yourself in public? I'd prefer the former.

I had a hard time trying to figure out what that article was all about. It almost seemed like Ballard-san had a grudge against Valentine-kantoku at times. For example, at times he seemed to be trying to grind Valentine-kantoku into the ground as the devil incarnate. Other times Ballard-san highlighted what Valentine-kantoku was trying to accomplish, and showing how hard he works at it. In the end, the only conclusion I could come up with was that controversy sells, so quote that which will create the largest controversy.

In think that the "JPL" mentioned by Ballard-san was the Japanese Pacific League (since it was being compared to the National League and American League). But Ballard-san used it in place of NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball). I've seen NPB mis-referenced as JBL (Japanese Baseball League) and JML (Japanese Major League) in the U.S. press in the past and really wish that they'd get the acronym right. Seeing things like JPL and JBL used makes me think that the author didn't research the topic enough. (There's more research necessary than following Bobby around for four days in August.)

Like Valentine-kantoku, I'm also left wondering why the U.S. press isn't interested in hearing about the game here (as opposed to just prospects). Plugh-san said it best in this thread:

Michael rightly points out that the "Watch" criteria is a future move to the Majors, but only peripherally. Yes, that is where the greatest interest lies with American baseball fans. I am doing my best to write articles that appeal to the demands of the market, while moving the genre in the direction of a broader appreciation for the non-MLB-bound players in Japan. You and I, and all of us here, love to follow Japanese baseball for the game itself, but there is a larger world of people who are only interested in the highest level of play in the world, MLB.

I have another friend who writes an occasional article for Sports Illustrated. He's tried to get them to take articles that would interest fans of Japanese baseball, but they've turned them down. They want articles with people saying that NPB is turning into a farm league for MLB, the floodgates are opening, nothing will stop the mass exodus, etc. I've done a number of interviews where that was the point that the "journalist" was striving for, and I wouldn't agree with that view (and was subsequently cut from the articles - no doom and gloom for NPB, no good sound bytes).

Overall, yet another disappointing article by the English press about Japanese baseball.

Well, it is a magazine that considers women wearing swimsuits a "sport."

An appropriate p.s. from Animaru there - one of the reasons I don't read that magazine.

In truth I thought that large parts of the article were interesting and positive, in terms of Bobby V. succeeding wildly in NPB; and remember that this is written from the standpoint of informing American readers who know little if anything about Japan and Japanese baseball. Even if Bobby-san did the "professional thing" and apologized in his own blog for various quotes about his colleagues, I found (and continue to find) his honesty and forthrightness refreshing (e.g. the Hargrove quote - on the money!), not reflecting badly on Bobby V. at all.

Having skimmed through the article quickly, my biggest disappointment was the obvious bias of the writer. It seems like SI's whole point was: sure, the guy is a great manager in Japan, but that doesn't mean much because it ain't America, and he ain't a success until he does it in MLB. And that bias points to a problem far bigger than a poor appreciation of NPB by the American sports media. Rather than digress into things political, I'll be interested to follow other peoples' reactions in this posting.

That's probably the thing that bothered me the most, Michael. Just the complete belittling of the Japanese game. The guy was trying to portray Bobby as the urban legend of the American rock musician who's unknown everywhere but "big in Japan." He was trying to tell the reader that Bobby can win 1,000 championships in Japan, but he's still a nobody because it's not in America.

These attitudes are remnants of the World War II era. Anyone with a brain can analyze just exactly where this guy is coming from. He may hate Bobby, but he sure doesn't like Japan much either.

I wrote this on Bobby's blog, and I'll write it again here. This guy is a coward. There's no other way to say it. A guy who puts on a fake facade in person, then writes insults about someone when on the other side of the world is nothing but a coward. Unlike him, I wouldn't hesitate for a second to call him a coward to his face, either.

- I think Japanese fans will be shocked to see how Bobby rips his own coaches and insults other MLB managers.

Except he never ripped his coaches, it was a sarcastic comment taken out of context. Also, as Valentine said in his blog entry:

In trying to prove my point in a serious discussion with my minor league manager, Koga-kantoku, I tried to reject what Koga-kantoku was saying by questioning the credibility of Baylor and Hargrove, the men he was quoting.

Second, even if it was true, there's a lot of real truth to Baylor and Hargrove's managerial decisions. From three years' experience of watching Hargrove day after day in Baltimore he made some questionable decisions, though so does every manager at times regardless of how good they are. Though once again, that was never Valentine's objective. It was a quote taken out of context.

- I had a chance recently to talk to a former MLBer who played for Bobby V. I asked him what Bobby was like, and he replied, "Well, I didn't really care for him. When you're going good, he acts like your best friend, but when you're not playing good, it's like you don't exist." Why am I not surprised that his former players didn't like him?

If you're going to make yourself look credible, at least name some names, instead of saying I talked to so and so former MLBer.

Switching to Valentine's popularity, a lot of people were turned off because a lot of time he said things people didn't want hear, but needed to badly. Some like Valentine and some don't, you can't make everyone like you.

Also, I leave you with this argument, it's hard to argue about Valentine's performance as Mets manager, seeing what he did after what looked like such a hopeless situation after taking over for Dallas Green in 1996. He was 536-467 (.534) as Mets manager, taking them to two Wild Card finishes. Also he wasn't such a slouch in Texas either.

- I have another friend who writes an occasional article for Sports Illustrated. He's tried to get them to take articles that would interest fans of Japanese baseball, but they've turned them down. They want articles with people saying that NPB is turning into a farm league for MLB, the floodgates are opening, nothing will stop the mass exodus, etc. I've done a number of interviews where that was the point that the "journalist" was striving for, and I wouldn't agree with that view (and was subsequently cut from the articles - no doom and gloom for NPB, no good sound bytes).

I agree, it gets quite frustrating, but sadly this is what the American sports press wants to write about. The problem, as mentioned above, is that the majority of the American public is only interested in the possible imports to MLB. Also this message is where the problem comes from, that fans of MLB think that the NPB is in a "doom and gloom" situation where the league will somehow collapse sooner or later because of the departure of a few stars each year, but as we all know this is far from the case.

As pointed out last year in the 2006 Attendance thread, that is far from the case. NPB is still as healthy as ever, fans are still pouring in. Are there things wrong with player development in NPB, of course there are. For example, the league could add way more minor leagues and more rounds to the draft for a bigger talent pool. Also, they could increase the amount of games played at ni-gun, but this argument is better left for another thread here.

Returning back to Westbay-san's point above, this isn't what the American press is interested in reporting, so far the wrong message is sent to the American public.

- Like Valentine-kantoku, I'm also left wondering why the U.S. press isn't interested in hearing about the game here (as opposed to just prospects).

I also remain baffled at why the American press isn't interested in actually trying to report about the game itself in Japan either, though like I said above, most Americans only want to hear about the top stars who will depart to MLB or are only interested in hearing who those top stars are to get a jump start in their "keeper leagues" for fantasy baseball and really don't have any interest whatsoever in the game itself in Japan.

One thing I will repeat here, that I have repeated over and over again is I wish that the NPB teams (Rakuten, Chiba Lotte, Nippon Ham, and Yomiuri) would do is to actually stop with their restrictive close-accessed practice of keeping the Internet telecasts in Japan only. I feel this would help start Americans to take a bigger interest in NPB, or at least get it towards the right path, slowly by shortly to take an interest as a fan of NPB, not just to hear who will depart to the majors.

Second, I also wish that someday that a real championship, like the current Konami Cup series, be implemented in which one day that MLB itself would also get involved. Or at least one similar to the challenge that Bobby Valentine issued to the Chicago White Sox a few years ago, though Ozzie Guillen ran his mouth as usual, with little to back up his talk. I also feel this would help start to raise awareness of the game in Japan and Asia in the U.S. and also help pull in potential fans of the game in Japan.

Finally, I'd like to see NPB actually try and make an effort to reach out to foreign fans, and not just English speaking fans, they also need to reach out to fans in South Korea and Taiwan, as both countries have top stars, but NPB remains shut out to those who could be potential fans. Also, this would begin to help bring in potential fans in the U.S. and maybe, just maybe (though probably still a big-if), begin to help writers to start to get something right.

- Just the complete belittling of the Japanese game. The guy was trying to portray Bobby as the urban legend of the American rock musician who's unknown everywhere but "big in Japan." He was trying to tell the reader that Bobby can win 1,000 championships in Japan, but he's still a nobody because it's not in America.

What can you expect from the American press on the subject of NPB? Everything, for the most part, has been a major disappoint (though is that the word we should actually use? The term "utter failure" would describe it better). Also, it gets annoying to hear Valentine belittled in the American press, but that's sadly how it is. I, like most here, am completely disappointed. Though to them, if it isn't in MLB, no one really cares what Valentine does. He could win 4,000 games, 26 Championships, and so on and so on, and because it isn't in MLB no one in the American press cares.

-These attitudes are remnants of the World War II era.

I'm not so sure that's really the case. This, for the most part, is just a terribly written article with little research, like Michael mentioned above. To help the American press better understand NPB and the game of baseball in Japan, they need to stop interviewing Bobby V. every single time, stop solely focusing on foreign players, and make an attempt to research native-born players, mention the team executives, and many other front office exces like Valentine said, who make the end result as much possible as Valentine and the team themselves. All in all, like Michael said above, this is another terrible disappoint by the American press, who for the most part should be able to a much better job at attempting to report the game in Japan and not just on the possible imports and the million articles on Valentine.

The press from the States will always consider NPB as a feeder for MLB and never anything close to an equal. People fear what is different. The Japanese game can be exciting, but the overall experience of going to a game is very different from MLB. When the North American press come here, they spot the differences immediately. From poor quality of the stadiums to differences in playing style and strategy. People can get spoiled very easily by going to games back in the States. The press is spoiled most of all.

I disagree that NPB is a feeder for MLB, and frankly, it's not equal overall to MLB, though there are many fine players. The depth of talent isn't equal. People here don't fear NPB, they just don't care. Outside of your favorite team or favorite star, baseball can be dull to many. What better way to generate interest than to chronicle old Bobby's exploits in Japan?

The truth is, many people don't like Bobby. He's viewed by many as an arrogant son-of-a-gun. His managerial record was middling in the States. He was a legend in his own mind. For him to be revered in Japan is something newsworthy. From my perspective it is a beautiful melding of both cultures into great success. But please, don't read too much into what's written on Bobby in the US, because many view him as a loud mouthed bum and are simply returning the favor.

Great comment on wearing swimsuits being a sport.

Westbay, you have been in Japan too long now to think that America will ever understand or care about Japan. I am coming up on my 30th anniversary of my exchange year here in Japan. 10 of those years have been in Japan off and on. When I returned the first time, after my sophomore year, Japan just began to pierce the American consciousness, due to economics. The tripe I read in the general news and business magazines about Japan was amazing to me. The writers just reinforced what they thought the readers wanted to read, stereotypes about Japan. In business much later I gave up trying to explain why things are different, good and bad, here to European and American managers, in the end they don't care.

As many posters have stated, the writer of this article was again reinforcing what his SI readers wish to read, that Japan has talent but will never be equal to MLB. Come on, the World Series takes place in the USA doesnt it? Bobby's success here in Japan means nothing to the US team owners. In fact it makes him less valuable to them as he may have gone native and therefore lost touch with real baseball, that is the American version. The truth is that Valentine, because of his success here in Japan, would be a better coach in the US, but only we can appreciate that.

Those gaijin who live here can enjoy Japanese baseball. That is it. To pretend otherwise is simply fighting against windmills.

The windmills turn on both sides of the Pacific, friend.

Undoubtably, but not when it comes to baseball. There is no coverage of Japanese baseball in the USA to speak of. People here watch MLB everyday, and I recall that the MLB games outdraw NPB in Japan (this was a few years ago, but may still be true).

Ask a Japanese baseball fan who Alex Rodriguez is, and then ask who Kanemoto is in the US. No comparison.

American does not care about Japanese baseball, Japanese watch American baseball to see their star players everyday.

Tuffy Rhodes known in the US? You have got to be kidding.

One minor point - some MLB games outdraw some NPB games (who wants to watch Orix?). But as a rule, in Japan NPB games far surpass the MLB viewing figures. We also have to remember that the only MLB games that get watched are the ones that feature Matsuzaka, Ichiro, and Matsui, and of the the three, Matsui is the biggest draw. Outside of this, the only team with any real recognition is the Yankees. People in Japan do wear Yankees clothing as fashion items (not many, but you do see them). The other teams do not figure.

- We also have to remember that the only MLB games that get watched are the ones that feature Matsuzaka, Ichiro, and Matsui

I agree. That's something I've been saying for a while. Everybody over here in Japan rooted for the Dodgers when Nomo went over, then they all became Seattle Mariners fans for Ichiro, then it was the Yankees for Matsui. That's the way it is, and MLB will never be able to market their particular brand of baseball any other way over here.

Except that, as Christopher says, Yankees apparel equals fashion. That's true the world over. (But I did once see this ojiisan wearing a Brooklyn Dodgers cap, which matched the Dodgers jacket I was wearing at the time. That was nice to see. I'm sure he didn't know what the "B" stood for, though.)

According to Video Research, which tracks TV viewing figures in Japan, the Giants, who used to have nearly all their games telecast nationwide in prime time on terrestrial TV, enjoyed an astonishing per-game rating average of around 20 percent a decade or more ago.

Today, however, in the wake of the departure of Matsui, the biggest Yomiuri star in a generation, and a spate of losing seasons, it is down to single digits, representing a drop of approximately 10 million terrestrial TV viewers.

It was the biggest single loss of an audience since children's TV star Pee Wee Herman was caught flagrante delicto in an adult theater in Florida.

Each year the number of prime-time nationwide telecasts into Japan's 50 million-some homes via the country's conventional TV network decreases, as more and more gamecasts are relegated to Japan's relatively underdeveloped regional cable systems and SkyPerfect satellite channels (The number of Giants terrestrial network telecasts has declined from 70 to 40, as of 2007).

Contrast that with these numbers:

It is an indication of the sorry state of affairs in the NPB that Matsuzaka will get more TV exposure in Japan by being in a Boston Red Sox uniform than he ever got playing for the Seibu Lions.

TV audiences for Lions games, which sold for 700,000 yen per contest last year, were estimated by Tokyo area sportswriters to be as low as 100,000 yen on cable and satellite.

Seibu's highest-rated game last year was the opener of the playoffs versus Softbank, when Matsuzaka faced off against Kazumi Saito, last year's PL pitcher of the year.

Aired on TBS, it drew a 6 percent rating in the Kanto area, a somewhat humble figure for such an important game and one that featured the country's two best hurlers.

It was nowhere near the ratings for the WBC final, which was watched by nearly one out of every two Japanese on Nippon TV, one of Japan 's largest commercial networks.

(Water consumption increased 25 percent during commercial breaks.)

Kozo Abe, a sports editor for the Fuji-Sankei group said, "Matsuzaka is a good athlete, but his popularity in Japan did not last past his rookie year. People were interested in his lovelife, his marriage, his famous traffic violations and whether or not he would go to America, but only a small segment of sports fans were actually interested in coverage of his games.

"The same was true of Ichiro when he was in Japan. It is only now, because he is in the States, that people are starting to pay attention again. Compared to Japan, the American game is just more dynamic -- it's bigger, stronger and faster. And more exciting, as long as Japanese players are in the game, of course."

Naturally, ALL of the games that Matsuzaka pitches for the Red Sox will be shown on NHK-BS satellite, now beamed into 13 million households, with a potential audience of around 32 million and growing.

Given the intense interest in Matsuzaka, in the wake of the enormous sum of money the Red Sox paid to acquire his services, viewership of some of Matsuzaka's games is expected to approach the unofficial BS record to date of an estimated 9 million people who watched Ichiro Suzuki break Sisler's record on Oct. 2, 2004, according to a special survey conducted by Video Research.

(That ratings firm normally limits itself to measuring conventional, terrestrial TV viewership, but made an exception for that game because of the mass interest and historic importance of the event.)

It is ironic that fans in Japan are now buzzing excitedly about upcoming Matsuzaka-Ichiro matchups in the MLB, when those matchups were largely ignored by the fans and the mainstream national media while both players were in the PL in 1999 and 2000.

At that time, the Tokyo Giants, as led by Matsui, occupied the spotlight nearly all the time.

Source: MLB'S EFFECT ON JAPAN: Is the MLB destroying Japan's national pastime?, by Robert Whiting, The Japan Times

Certain caution is needed with the figures. Firstly, they refer only to Giants games - what about Tigers, Dragons, and the other teams? Secondly, they do not really tell the story of why the Giants' figures have fallen (and it's nothing to do with MLB). Thirdly, they are not accurate, because games are shown in Izakayas (eating bars) where the audience is under-estimated. Fourthly, just because someone can receive MLB games doesn't mean that they actually watch them. Fifthly, the BS service televises a lot of NPB games at peak times, not the highlights of MLB games.

The example of the Softbank/Seibu game also needs to be treated with caution. This is Kanto - it's Giants land. Most Giants fans are going to ignore it. Furthermore, after the initial excitement, interest in Matsuzaka has fallen off. It will probably revive when he approaches some milestone and then fall off again.

As I mentioned, the interest is not in MLB but in Matsuzaka. MLB is deluding itself if it thinks otherwise.

Just to support Christopher again (I don't know what's come over me).

1. The decline in the Giants' TV audience has had more to do with their poor performances on the field than the loss of Matsui.
2. The popularity of WBC indicates, surely, that there's still a healthy interest in Japanese baseball and Japanese ballplayers. Japanese viewers didn't tune in to watch MLB players; they wanted to see Japanese players attempt to beat the rest of the world.
3. As Christopher says, the fans are watching Japanese players in the MLB, not MLB itself. The fans couldn't care less if the Yankees are 13 games behind - the actual results are unimportant.
4. Why focus on Tokyo? I daresay fan interest in Kansai has increased dramatically over the past few years with the success of the Tigers. Nagoya too, I imagine. What about Sendai?
5. Nobody has ever surveyed my household or anyone else I know. How accurate are these "estimates"?

I'll one up you on that and say the interest isn't in Matsuzaka, but nationalism. Remember the old Japanese pro wrestling matches with Rikidozan? After the war, they'd put on pro wrestling matches with big white men losing to Rikidozan, who was ironically a naturalized Korean. On a subconscious level, this was part of the mass healing process after the war.

I think the coverage of Japanese players is very similar to that. It's not even about baseball. It's about, "How do our boys stack up against the big foreigners?" Don't forget how Felix Hernandez's one hitter was completely ignored in Matsuzaka's debut. This isn't about baseball. I think the fans over there will even tell you that, because real yakyu fans over there can't stand the fact that broadcasts are cut short when Boston goes into the bullpen.

Shame on both Korea and Japan for letting nationalism rule them during the WBC and for not supporting their leagues as much as they should.

You guys can read the whole article if you wish. Some of your observations are addressed by the author. I only cut out pertinent sections having to do with the statement by Christopher that the NPB outdraws the MLB consistently. This is false. When you guys finish your third book on baseball in Japan you can take it up with Whiting.

The teams, other than the Midgets and Tigers, are getting paid next to nothing for their broadcast rights because few people watch. Lotte gets nothing. I was in Chiba a few years ago and caught a local broadcast of the team, I think they had one, at most two, cameras in the stadium. The shot was wide angle all the time, like sitting in the bleachers.

Nationalism, of course, is why the MLB is watched by Japanese folks. I made that point, as does the author. Yao Ming has caused the NBA to take off in China, this is natural. The fact is Japanese people are watching MLB.

Last, in section four of the series of articles, there is a nice reference to this website and Mr. Westbay.

Mijow, not to disturb your new love fest with Christopher, but the author does point out that you were right about the main revenue source for Japanese teams, it's not trinkets as you correctly stated. It's ticket sales, plus TV for the Midgets and the Tigers.

- ...the author does point out that you were right about the main revenue source for Japanese teams, it's not trinkets as you correctly stated. It's ticket sales, plus TV for the Midgets and the Tigers.

Well I wasn't worried - I knew I was right. Just couldn't prove it.

But you know, on the point about Whiting's three books, sure, everybody respects Robert Whiting, we all use his writings as a starting point - "You Gotta Have Wa" is a bible to some - but he's not infallible (as I'm sure he'd be the first to admit). I remember that he initially regarded the departure of Ichiro and some of the other players much more negatively than he does today.

Compare his earlier comment, quoted here, with part four of his series:

Before:

Recently, sports channel ESPN interviewed Robert Whiting, famed author of You Gotta Have Wa - the ultimate explanation of the subtleties and intricacies of the Japanese game. Whiting says Japanese baseball "is doomed" if more players choose to abandon ship.

Now:

Whiting: "There is still a healthy interest in the game in Japan. There is too much baseball history and the country produces too many top quality players for the Japanese pro game to ever die out.

So yakyu seems to have gone from "doomed" to "not doomed" in the space of a few years. Having a book or three published doesn't mean you can't get it wrong from time to time.

Actually, when I think more about this, I'm wondering whether Robert Whiting may have been misquoted initially, because his position seems to have shifted 180 degrees. Either he was wrong then, or wrong now. (But I seem to recall seeing this report on TV, because the word "doomed" really stood out. I seem to remember thinking at the time that Mr. Whiting had it wrong.)

So assuming he's changed his view, I wonder whether the debates at this site had anything to do with it. And if so, then zman, maybe we should just continue to voice our opinions without waiting until we've published our third book. Don't you think?

In the interview with ESPN, I was asked a question which went something like "Do you think the Japanese league will continue as before or do you think it is doomed to being a feeder status to the MLB." I can't remember the exact words, which were cut out of the interview in any event, but they came in the wake of a conversation I'd had with Jeremy Schapp, the ESPN interviewer, about how the leaders of the NPB viewed their own game. I'd told him that their goal had long been to hold a "real world series" between the US and Japan champions. The idea was proposed many times by Yomiuri founder Matsutaro Shoriki during the V-9 Kyojin era, and then MLB commissioner Bowie Kuhn was receptive to the idea - at least in public. Every time he visited Japan, he predicted that a RWS would be held within 5 years, but of course nothing ever happened.

What I said in that discussion was that the idea of a RWS now seemed less doable than ever with Japan's top stars leaving for the States. When Jeremy popped the above question, what I said in response, and meant, was that Japanese ball was doomed to be a feeder system for the MLB if the present exodus of top players continued. The words after "doomed" were cut out - the sort of thing that quite often happens in taped interviews. I did not say, nor did I mean to imply, that Japanese baseball was "doomed" to extinction.

I could eventually be proven wrong about "doomed to feeder status." And if so, it would not be the first time.

Thanks, Bob, for the clarification. So "doomed" was the word used by the interviewer, then - because it appeared to be a touch dramatic, and understandably prone to misunderstanding.

I'd be interested to know whether your views have shifted just a little since that interview, though. My view has always been that NPB (and baseball in general in Japan) has too much pride and tradition to allow itself to become just a feeder for MLB. Over the last few years it's been adapting (albeit ever so slowly and reluctantly) to changing circumstances, bringing the game to Sendai, for example, draft reform, inter-league play, playoffs for both leagues - largely because of agitation from fans and players. Even the main method of "feeding" star players to MLB, the posting system, has been taken advantage of by NPB clubs - I'm sure that after Igawa, the Yankees will be more cautious before they munch on on NPB talent again!

What I'm saying is that, if MLB thinks it's going to just step in and ride roughshod over Japanese baseball, they should realize they'll have a fight on their hands. It's not doomed to be anything I suggest. Yakyu's destiny is firmly in the hands of those who play it, watch it, and manage it.

Oh wow, you have a very strange attitude. Have you ever considered that MLB would not run roughshod, as you say (a statement I disagree with), if the NPB stars weren't in such a hurry to head to the MLB as soon as they win their freedom? When NPB hires a few second-string players from MLB, is that not munching, too? Frankly, MLB doesn't have enough interest in, or benefit from, NPB to waste its energy in the mythical fight you write of. What fight anyway? Is MLB going to award franchises in the top 5 Japanese cities, stock them with westerners and compete for the almighty yen of the Yakyu fan? I think you are looking for an angle that does not exist.

What's so strange about my attitude? No, really, please spell it out for me.

Isn't it obvious that MLB is keen to grab Japanese talent at the lowest possible price? Some clubs are sending scouts out to Koshien now, trying to see what's available. Why are they seeking tie-ups with Japanese clubs? Not to sell a couple of t-shirts I would think.

I don't actually have a problem with NPB players going over to play in MLB. Others have said that if this continues Yakyu is doomed, etc. I don't subscribe to that view. I say good luck to them. But I want the posting system to continue (there have been murmurings that this system disadvantages American fans because they won't get to see the Matsuzakas and Matsuis play in the States if the asking price is too high - that sounds like the opening shots of a battle to me).

Look, all I'm saying is, sure, allow these guys to go over, but at the same time extract a fair price for them. MLB would like to get them at bargain basement prices. NPB should make sure that doesn't happen.

There is a belief in MLB that all top Japanese players automatically want to go to play in America. This view is pedaled by the baseball press, but doesn't reflect the actuality. A minority want to go, but the majority don't.

There is also a false view that it is only the best talent in Japan that is leaving, and that the players left behind are not as good. Certainly good players leave, but good players also stay. This view ignores the depth of talent in Japan which is such that losses of a few stars can easily be born. Like Mijow, I don't see the loss of a few players as anything serious given the amount of talent in NPB, and MLB certainly shouldn't get the idea that all NPB is a feeder league for them.

I'm waiting for an NPB team to offer up some huge bucks for a legit free agent and snatch him away from MLB.

Of course not all, or even the majority, of players want to go to MLB. And not all the studs are leaving either. If there was a flood, I'd be worried as if I were an NPB fan. For the reasonable amount going, only the insecure get in a lather.

Look at what you wrote:

... if MLB thinks it's going to just step in and ride roughshod over Japanese baseball, they should realize they'll have a fight on their hands ...

You seem to see conflict where there isn't any. You seem to look for trouble, to fabricate an issue where one does not seem to exist. You position for a fight, when there is no threat. That's strange to me.

The posting system cheats the athletes and is a subtle form of slavery. If the MLB is as cheap as you think, no NPB player would go there because they'd get more yen at home. That is generally not the case. That's why Matsuzaka didn't get the $15+M he probably deserved. But he was no bargain, the greedy owners pocketed $40 something million. Igawa was an utter waste of money and the Yankees are paying dearly. No bargain there. If the owners keep it up, the NPB players will be priced out of the market, including the posting fee. But that is how the owners and the "proud" fans want it.

Greedy owners? It was the decision of the Red Sox and Yankees to put up the money they did. No one forced them. It's nothing to do with the owners in NPB, though they do benefit.

One can say the draft is a subtle form of slavery, but not the posting system - anyone can bid and the one who bids the most gets the chance to negotiate. However, the player is not forced to go to the club who wins, and most of them are not too picky about who they play for.

Given the amount of money MLB wastes on mediocre players in America it will be a long time before NPB is "priced out of the market."

Yeah, Ed, I suppose I was being a little over dramatic there, so perhaps I should tone it down for the sensitive souls out there who find such language offensive.

Perhaps MLB does indeed have the best of intentions, and maybe they do in fact respect NPB in the way their press releases keep telling us they do. Maybe it's not all about money and looking after number one.

But I do hope that if this isn't the case, then NPB will do whatever it takes to make sure Japanese baseball never becomes a mere feeder for MLB. What's so strange about wanting that?

I appreciate the irony that it is implied that I am a sensitive soul by suggesting a more temperate position when in the past I have been accused of much the opposite.

The posting system mechanism may work as a free market, but as a concept, paying for the freedom to work elsewhere after 10 years is inherently unfair, though a shorter service time is fair. The money paid to the owners as a posting fee would likely go to the athlete in a free market bidding process. The demand for a fee conceptually suggests greed.

NPB should do whatever it takes to put the best product in the world on the field. That will draw more fans, higher attendance, more viewers, and more money for salaries. That might keep some of the stars at home, but the allure of playing in a league where the players who leave say they want to test their mettle will only diminish when the NPB players no longer feel the need. Whatever it takes means to upgrade the product; greater competitiveness, better players from outside Japan, more Bobby V. kind of play and management, who and which is the topic of this thread, IMHO.

Ed, I don't disagree with you on NPB improving its game. I agree on shortening the free-agent qualifying period. You're right - more of what Valentine is doing would be good for the game. And a free market is fine - when it's possible to have a free market.

I'm just worried about the anti-competitive tendencies of MLB. That's all my comment was meant to convey. Next time I'll refrain from using robust language, if some find that confusing.

This is an article written from the point of view of MLB. There were a lot of good points, but this one is perhaps the weakest. Remember to consider the editorial bias before you accept everything as gospel. It has been mentioned on this site that the Japanese market is fragmenting and becoming more regional. However, most external observers, whether from lack of time or laziness, focus on the Giants only. Thus they get a distorted view. They ignore (perhaps because they don't understand) the ability of regional markets to generate popularity for the teams. Mijow mentioned Sendai and Kansai to which we can also add Fukuoka and Chubu.

I will say again just so it is clear - MLB relies on individual Japanese players for impact on the Japanese market. Outside this it is basically irrelevant - NPB is far more popular than MLB. The main competitor to NPB is not MLB, it is J-League [domestic soccer].

- This is an article written from the point of view of MLB. [...]

I will say again just so it is clear - MLB relies on individual Japanese players for impact on the Japanese market. Outside this it is basically irrelevant - NPB is far more popular than MLB. The main competitor to NPB is not MLB, it is J-League [domestic soccer].

Wow, if anything, you are consistent. So many errant points, but let me address just a couple.

It makes no difference why Japanese folks watch the MLB in higher numbers than the NPB. The fact is they do. TV ratings and revenue from broadcasting are clear. So you are right about why they watch being irrelevant, but not for the reason you have stated.

Second, Whiting presents facts based on numbers. Those facts are contrary to your opinion for which you have no facts. Sure he has a point of view which wanders a bit in his articles, but ratings and revenues, unless you think he is making this stuff up, are what they are.

You can admit to being wrong, it won't kill you. It might make your stronger.

Let my clarify one thing - I know what the real figures are for MLB viewing on NHK. I have contacts in the organization who give me this information. MLB, apart from certain games, does not draw anywhere as near as many viewers as NPB. Do not assume that the information you have seen is accurate. Numbers in Japanese organizations consist of two types - those for public consumption (to justify the fortune NHK spends on MLB) and the real hidden figures. These normally tell a different story.

For obvious reasons I cannot reveal my sources or the information I have beyond what I have written. When I say that the main competitor for NPB is J-League, that is because it is true. MLB is a long way off being a threat, and it is only because of the stubbornness of certain NHK executives that it is still being shown.

- Let my clarify one thing - I know what the real figures are for MLB viewing on NHK. I have contacts in the organization who give me this information. ...

For obvious reasons I cannot reveal my sources or the information I have beyond what I have written. ...

OK, thanks for sharing. Somehow I am reminded by your words of a few lines from Animal House, 1978. I cannot reveal my sources otherwise, well you know ...

[Dean Wormer's plotting to get rid of Delta House]

Greg Marmalard: But Delta's already on probation.

Dean Vernon Wormer: They are? Well, as of this moment, they're on DOUBLE SECRET PROBATION!

I appreciate your comments, however the source of the information would be very easy to identify within NHK. It would have a big impact on careers as whistle-blower protection here is non-existent. Whist I am happy to share as much as possible, I am not going to put someone else's career in jeopardy. I hope you understand.

I'm not prepared to go as far as you did on the nationalism motive, but it definitely is a matter of how do our best guys stack up. The game of baseball is secondary. I don't think this match up obsession is just based on curiosity either. Does it come from some insecurity that NPB is the second fiddle on the world pro baseball stage? All the following of Ichiro, Godzilla, and Dice-K is so focused and narrow, it's almost like a fetish. It's not driven by the love of universal baseball.

Lastly, on the comment that Japanese fans watch their players in MLB, but don't care about MLB, then why decry American fans lack of interest in NPB? Except that when the US press expresses interest in Bobby V. and how he matches up with his Japanese counterparts, it is dismissed as literary drivel.

Ed, you did play for the Mets in the 1960s and 70s?

Regarding your comments, I think it depends on the sport. Look at football. Most top teams are mostly foreigners in each league. The teams remain popular locally because they are more competitive, and with foreign players they attract worldwide attention. Barcelona, MU, Real Madrid are all international teams playing in regional leagues. Basketball in the US is exploding in popularity now that 25% are foreigners. Again the play is better and the scope of interest in now worldwide. The most successful sports are internationalizing rapidly, as the MLB is doing with so many Latin players.

Japanese baseball, as Whiting points out, is pathetic in this regard. He gives many reasons, and no surprise points to Yomuri's dominance of the sport as preventing it from growing beyond its stagnant fan base. He quotes from Tamaki-san:

Said Masayuki Tamaki, Japan's leading baseball writer, summing up the difference between the MLB and the NPB: "One's professional and the other isn't. One cares about the game and the other doesn't. One knows how to market its product and make money while the other doesn't know its a**."

Ha, I wish. It's my mother's fault. She would not let me play Little League on Saturday. No worries though, I didn't quite have the talent anyway. Ed Kranepool was my favorite Met after Tom Seaver. I like Ed better in many ways because he blossomed as the team got better. Tom was terrific from day one.

Soccer is played so much around the world at similar levels so that it's easier to internationalize the game. The proximity of countries in Europe facilitates that.

In America, what little we had of pro-soccer was full of foreigners who could play the game better than most Americans. It was a business and fans wanted the highest quality product they could get, so it wasn't an issue, and the "purity" of the game wasn't challenged. After all, soccer is not an American born game. Neither is baseball native to Japan. The percentage of foreigners in MLB and NBA shows the racial/ethnic/game purity euphemisms don't apply to player selection.

It comes down to the effects of globalization. MLB is all for it. NPB is more cautious and run mostly by dinosaurs. Tamaki-san's comments are pretty blunt, but highlights the effects of protectionism. Philosophically, can the fans (really more so the owners) in Japan get to the point where the N in NPB doesn't necessarily refer to the players' nationality? Then there will be a more global game in Japan and some fans will stop comparing the size of their players' ... bats to MLB players'.

With apologies for the late response, the main point of my recent article was not to say which is more popular in Japan, NPB or MLB. The point of the article was to answer the question that I was asked about a hundred times by members of the North American media last winter after Daisuke Matsuzaka signed with the Red Sox, which is: "Is America destroying Japan's national pastime?" My answer to that was no, that generally speaking, the NPB is to blame for most of its problems including sluggish attendance growth and a weak revenue stream from TV and other ancillary sources and that these problems existed long before the MLB came along.

A rough rule of thumb for successful MLB teams is that they normally make one third of total income in ticket sales, another third in TV-radio revenue, and the rest in signage, sponsorships and revenue sharing (from merchandising, licensing, national and international TV sales, internet fees, etc.). In Japan, with the exception of Kyojin and maybe Hanshin, teams derive the vast majority of their income in ticket sales. The other areas remain under developed.

I don't believe I quite said that the MLB got a higher TV viewership than the NPB in Japan. It is too hard to get accurate data about the popularity of MLB vis-a-vis NPB, because neither NHK nor Video Research releases the ratings of BS satellite game casts for public consumption. To my knowledge, the only public survey taken in regard to baseball satellite (or cable) telecasts was the one by Video Research on the MLB game between Seattle and Texas on October 1, 2004 in which Ichiro broke George Sisler's record. They conducted the survey in response to popular media demand and estimated the audience to be around 9 million for that morning telecast.

The NHK BS broadcast lasted 198 minutes and the average rating in the Kanto area was 7.2%. There are around 17 million households in Kanto, so 7.2% makes 1.22 million households watching the game. According to Video Research, this means nearly 3 million people watched this game in Kanto (see footnote below). Since Kanto represents approximately a third of the nation's households, the countrywide estimate would then be close to 9 million people. The highest rating of that game was 11.7% at 11:58. This makes 1.99 million households watching the game at that time, or approximately 5,000,000 in Kanto and an estimated 15,000,000 nationwide.

The Video Research survey was followed by an article in the Wall Street Journal on October 31, 2003, which estimated that the 272 MLB contests telecast on NHK BS-1 that year had drawn an average of 1.5 million viewers, on 4.41 million households at that time with satellite boxes, using figures that were provided by the MLB, presumably with some cooperation from NHK and/or Dentsu, which bought the MLB package, although the article does not state where those figures came from. If they are accurate, that's a little over one percent of the total viewing audience. That same year, according to the WSJ, an average of 12.5 million viewers in Japan watched the six games of the World Series between Hideki Matsui's Yankees and the Florida Marlins, on NHK-G, which only telecasts MLB games on certain occasions. That is quite good for morning casts, but still below the 18 million viewers-per-game average the Japan Series cast enjoyed that same month.

Since 2003, the number of BS-tuners has tripled and according to Dentsu, there are now 13 million of them in Japanese households. It may be true that interest waxes and wanes as the fortunes of Japanese players in the MLB rise and fall. You don't have to be a professional TV analyst to know that interest in Yankees games last year dropped off after Matsui went on the DL, and again this year because of Matsui's return to the DL, Igawa's poor performance, and Matsui's so-so stats after he came back. My own contacts in NHK, where I work on occasion, tell me that these days the average MLB game telecast in the morning this season BS-1 earns about a 3% rating, or about 3.6 million viewers nationwide (during the 10:00 a.m.-11 a.m. time slot), if Japanese are playing in the game. It was 4% (4.8 million viewers) for most games in which Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched and 4% for most Yankee games in which Matsui played. But others did not fare so well. The Seattle-Pittsburgh 3-day-game series in mid-June (20, 21, 22) drew only 1.5-2% and the June 27 Boston at Seattle day game telecast in which Matsuzaka pitched June 28 drew only 2%. perhaps due to start times. However, the Yankees-Athletics matchup telecast on Saturday June 30 drew 4%. A MLB game with no Japanese players in it averages 1.5%. On the other hand, I am told, NPB games telecast on BS-1 in the evening, draw a point less on average than their MLB morning counterparts. The Chunichi-Softbank game on Saturday June 23, telecast from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m., drew a 1.9% rating (a high of 2.3% and a low of 0.4%), while a Friday June 29 matchup between Orix and Nippon Ham telecast from 6 to 9 p.m. drew a rating of 0.5% viewership (0.2-0.8%), or about 600,000 people.

If accurate, these figures seem to indicate that the percentage of BS tuner owners watching those MLB game casts over the past three years has not changed very much. NHK's Akio Kozaki, former head of BS-1 Sports, cautions, "the figures are all very general and are actually educated guesses." Thus, it would be nice if Christopher could provide some data from the internal educated NHK guesses he says he has access to, so we can compare.

Viewership numbers for MLB games on BS, whatever they are, are most certainly below those of the Tokyo Giants, for the most part, that is. According to Video Research, the Tokyo Giants averaged about 10% last year in Kanto on terrestrial TV. Using the Video Research formula of roughly 400,000 viewers for one percent in the region, this represents about 4 million per game. Kyojin's ratings in Kansai and certain other regions are known to be somewhat lower, so we can assume that less than 10 million people in all tuned into nightly Giants games around the country in 2006. This is a big drop from 2002, the last year Hideki Matsui, their big star, played for the Giants, when ratings stood at 16.2%, again according to Video Research. NHK estimates their nighttime telecasts of Giants games run anywhere from 6% to 10%, while NPB day games on terrestrial TV draw 3-4% (see footnote below). However, the odd MLB game on NHK-G does better. The matchup between Matsuzka and Ichiro in April in Boston drew 10.7% with a high of 13.3% during Ichiro's at-bats, more than double the normal ratings for the 9 a.m.–noon time slot, with an 8.9% rating in Kansai. This translates into roughly 10 million fans nationwide overall with momentary viewership around 14 million, if one uses the Video Research formula of 1.2 million viewers per 1%. 14 million exceeds Kyojin viewership these days.

Again, these figures are all estimates. Video Research has only five hundred monitors in Kanto, with several hundred more in the rest of the country. Their surveys do not, of course, account for the fact that people in households with sets tuned to the game may not be watching it, or for izakaya viewership, or for the possibility that people riding in cabs may be eyeballing the game on the taxi's TV. And they certainly don't count the hundreds of thousands of pedestrians stopping to watch jumbotrons and other TV display sets all around Japan showing MLB games. But, this is the only semi-reliable basis for comparison we have and Video Research does at least apply the same standards to all programs. If VR's data is not 100% accurate, it will have to do until someone steps forward with something better. Says NHK regular Masayuki Tamaki, "500 monitors in Kanto might not be a lot, but it's a lot more than NHK has to rate its own programs. NHK can't match Video Research when it comes to determining their own viewership. Their internal data could hardly be described as reliable."

Christopher says my focus on the Giants in my recent 4-parts series gives the reader a distorted view. My point in singling out Kyojin was that MLB recruitment of Hideki Matsui did damage to the Giants TV ratings - whereas the departure of Ichiro, Matsuzaka et al did not hurt their teams' TV revenue at all, since it was practically non-existent in the first place (although of course attendance took something of a hit in both instances). Granted, there are other reasons for the Kyojin slide. That's obvious. But, again, ask beat reporters who cover the NPB and they will tell you they believe Matsui's leaving was the main reason for the Giants' dip in popularity. Typical is Fuji-Sankei's veteran kisha, Yoshifumi Ejiri, who points out that Matsui's departure left the Giants without a superstar to root for, wounding the team's image. (Ejiri also argues that if Matsui had remained in Japan the focus would have increasingly turned to Matsui's mounting home run total and his attempt to challenge Sadaharu Oh's lifetime home run record and other batting records. The sports dailies would play it up and TV ratings would rise.) Post-Matsui Kyojin has reached a state of affairs so bad that ratings for their games hit an all time low for April this year in Kanto, 10.8%, and when the Giants played SoftBank in the Tokyo Dome on May 30, NTV did not broadcast the game, opting instead to telecast Norika Fujiwara's wedding, an event which hit 40% in Kansai and 24.7% in Kanto. This slight by NTV irritated SoftBank manager Oh so much that he blasted NTV executives in the papers, pointing out how ungrateful they were, given all the money NTV had made over the years from the Giants' telecasts. He complained they were ruining the future of the game with their actions. Executives retorted that the Giants were "onimotsu," and could never hope to reclaim the top ratings spot with a full slate of Giants games.

One reason NTV is bailing is because the viewers of Giant games are older - in their 50s and 60s - and do not buy the products the sponsors advertise during the game. Advertisers want a younger demographic because of the higher potential purchasing power. Because of NTV's declining interest, the Giants have had to start shopping their home games to other TV networks. The days when they can charge 1-oku per game are coming to an end and I wonder how much longer they will be able to keep turning a profit.

Christopher says let's talk about other teams, so let's do that. Let's discuss, the great "ability of regional markets to generate popularity for the teams" in Sendai, Fukuoka, Chubu, Kansai, and other places. How much TV revenue has that resulted in? A grand total of $7 million dollars for Rakuten, (almost half of which was from 3 home games with the Giants). For SoftBank, it was less than $9 million (a third of which came from a 3-game home series with the Giants) and that was far and away the highest total in the Pacific League. SoftBank's TV right sales price of 10 million yen per televised home game, considerably less than what an MLB game commands in Japan, nearly triples that of Nippon Ham, quadruples that of the Eagles, is 114 times that of Seibu, and 533 times that of Lotte. Orix gets next to nothing.

SoftBank gets reasonably good ratings in Kyushu: the Hawks managed 13.9% for that famous Saturday afternoon October 7 Seibu-SoftBank game in Tokorozawa last year, featuring Saitoh and Matsuzaka, arguably the two best pitchers in Japan at the time and a game that would be Matsuzaka's last start in Japan. But, according to KBC Kyushu Asahi, which supplied that data, it means that only 1,050,000 people watched that game. This was less than half the number that watched it in Kanto where the TBS rating was 6%, representing 2,400,000 people. ("That's Giantsland," Christopher reminds us, where "most Giant fans are going to ignore it.")

In the Central League, Chunichi makes about $20 million annually from TV rights and will be unable to re-sign their big star Fukudome and maybe Kawakami as well. All of these clubs are having great difficulty making ends meet, despite reasonably good attendance, because of low TV revenue and high stadium rentals. SoftBank draws well over two million fans a year, but it struggles to make a profit because of the nearly $40 million rent on the Yahoo Dome that it must add onto its payroll and running costs. Only the Hanshin Tigers, among NPB teams excepting the Giants, makes decent money.

As to the popularity of the NPB vis a vis the MLB, there are figures and there are figures. On any given night the total number of people watching all NPB games available on TV around the country, be it terrestrial, cable, or satellite, would exceed the total number of people who had watched MLB on BS that morning. But if the figures mentioned earlier are any indication, then, at the same time, the average viewership of the morning MLB gamecast on BS-1 is higher than the average viewership of the regional telecast of home games of the SoftBank Hawks, or the Chunichi Dragons (see footnote below) or the Yokohama BayStars, or the Hiroshima Carp, or the Yakult Swallows, and total season viewership of MLB games surpasses the total season viewership of each of those teams as well, speaking in terms of the total number of eyeballs tuned in. Even if MLB viewership slipped this season during the time that Matsui and Iwamura went on the DL and Igawa was dispatched to the minors, it is doubtful the daily MLB casts during that period attracted less viewers per game than the home game telecasts of Seibu, Rakuten, Lotte, Nippon Ham, or Orix, the non BS satellite-cable audiences of which appear to be truly dreadful - estimated as they are to be in the low (very low) hundred thousands, on average (see below). Of course, some key games, like Ichiro's record breaking contest, and his initial encounter with Matsuzaka, surpass even Giants TV, as do MLB contests occasionally aired on NHK General.

I think one of the most telling stats is that the MLB can sell an average game in Japan for more than any NPB team can with the exception of Kyojin and Hanshin. Figure up to $250,000 per game, depending on the season broadcast schedule of MLB games, which is exceeded only by $425,000 for Hanshin and $830,000 for Yomiuri, for the time being. No one forced Dentsu or NHK to pay that money, which is not an unreasonably high figure. It just seems high when you look at the pitiful sums that most NPB teams get to the TV rights to their games. Moreover, NHK-BS does televise more MLB games in a season than they do NPB games, even if their primary interest is in the Japanese players appearing in those games.

But then, when all is said and done, the two games are not really in competition, are they? MLB games are live in the morning. NPB games are live in the evening. The NPB's big enemy on the sporting scene, it seems to me, is itself.

Frankly, I really can't say with certainty which game is more liked in the hearts and minds of Japanese people (and frankly I don't care). I've seen conflicting surveys. The sports dailies I see everyday, and I see them all, don't seem to favor one or the other in terms of front page coverage, except, that is, for those dailies like the Chunichi Supotsu, the Daily Supotsu and the Hochi Shimbun which are affiliated with NPB teams. However, the editors at the evening daily Yukan Fuji thought MLB would be so popular this year that they added an extra five page section to cover it, more than they devoted to NPB. The only caveat was that the articles in this section had to relate somehow to Japanese players on MLB teams. There has even been some discussion in the Fuji-Sankei offices about publishing an evening paper devoted solely to MLB. But then, concern set in after the two Matsui's and Iwamura went on the DL, Iguchi fell into a slump, and Igawa was sent to the minor leagues. In July, a new editor, disappointed perhaps in Hideki Matsui's so-so stats, reduced MLB coverage to 3 pages, which is still considerable, and gave the remaining two pages to college and pro ball in Japan and J-League soccer.

In the course of my work, when I talk to newspaper, magazine, and TV people in Japan, what they talk about most when it comes to sports is Matsuzaka, or Ichiro, or some other Japanese who is playing well in the MLB. It is the same with my Japanese in-laws. And my neighbors. And certainly the same with NHK. What you see prominently displayed as you enter NHK are large posters of Japanese stars playing in the U.S. What you see inside the lobby are large TV sets with video tapes of Japanese playing in the MLB: You don't see anything about the NPB. And you don't hear many people talking about the NPB. Or if they do, it is in a dismissive manner. "Tsumaranai." Long, long gone are the days when all that bar tenders and taxi cab drivers talked about was puro yakyu, especially during the Ogon Kyojin-Hanshin-sen. But maybe that's just me. I'm 64 and live in Kamakura. Someone else's experience may be different, like that of the people who regularly post on japanesebaseball.com and who are some of the most enthusiastic fans of the Japanese game that I have ever encountered.

I'm not sure what meaning there is in ratings anyway, since their primary purpose is to determine market prices of air time for sponsors (something which does not exactly affect NHK in the way it does the commercial stations, although NHK does pull programs, such as its NHL package, because of poor viewer response). How can you determine real fan interest? Does the MLB news (or rather the MLB news of Japanese players there) lead the NHK baseball report because misguided higher ups order it or because that is truly what the viewers want to see first? Why are the various activities of Matsuzaka, Matsui, Ichiro et al, often reported in the regular news and not just on the sports page? The people who watch the MLB game casts on NHK-BS are mostly housewives and children. Working men get their MLB news from late night sports reports and the supotsu-shi, and there are few Japanese men who are free to watch TV in the morning for three hours, but does that mean they are not interested? Taped reruns broadcast in the evening would seem to hold little attraction on most days for most people because they already have access to the game's outcome via the yukanshi and internet. Would a live telecast of the 7th game of the A.L.C.S. between say the Yankees and the Red Sox with Matsuzaka on the mound, draw more than a live telecast of the final game of the Central League Playoffs, if both were broadcast, live, at the time on terrestrial TV? And if it did, what would that prove?

Have my views shifted since the "doomed" 2001 interview with ESPN, Mijow asks? Well, in the half a dozen years that have elapsed since then, despite predictions that not many Japanese stars would follow in Ichiro's footsteps, Japan has lost arguably its best slugger, its best second baseman, its best pitcher, and several other good players. And at the end of his season Fukudome, among others, will head to the States. His team can't afford him. And even if it could he probably wouldn't stay anyway. Hideki Matsui could have written his own ticket if he'd opted to stay with the Giants. But he didn't. So much for pride and tradition.

Inter-league play, draft reform, the development of regional alliances, rising interest in the Pacific League and the P.L. I-Pod venture all represent long overdue steps in the right direction. But as this has all been happening in the past 3-4-5 years, NPB TV revenues have fallen, attendance has remained sluggish, and salaries have declined. So where is the money going to come from to keep players like Fukudome in Japan? You can't keep on losing such top star players without it having an effect on the level of play. As Bobby Valentine puts it, it's like strip mining. The fact that 38-year old Tuffy Rhodes (a player cut by the Cincinnati Reds last year and one who spent the subsequent 12 months out of baseball), is among the home run leaders in the Pacific League, says something about the depth of the Japanese leagues, I think. There is certainly a great deal of talent in this country when you consider the 8,000 high school baseball teams and their own high quality of play. It's just not yet being developed the way it should be, not with each NPB team having only one farm team.

Of course, there is reason to be optimistic. The shift from a one-engine Giant-centric system is healthy, as is the emergence of independent leagues. The Tigers and the Hawks have certainly stimulated their fan bases. Some individuals are making the right noises about developing the minor leagues in Japan. Moreover, the restoration of interest in high school and college baseball, thanks to Yuki Saitoh, bodes well for the future, as evidenced by the 9.9% rating of a recent Saitoh outing for Waseda on NHK's educational channel.

Who knows? Maybe the NPB will stage a big rally. Maybe big Japanese stars, and Japanese fans, will lose their fascination with the MLB. Maybe the MLB will finally implode under the weight of all its spending. Maybe the NPB will figure out how to make a lot of money, share revenue, pay better salaries, and compete on the international market for its own players. Maybe Ichiro will come home.

Personally, I would love to see this happen. I would also like to see some kind of merger between the MLB and the NPB. Fans on both sides of the Pacific deserve to see the best. But I'm enough of a realist to know that that will not happen in my lifetime.

If anyone has corrections or additions to the numbers presented above and below, I’d appreciate if you would please come forward.

¤ ¤ ¤ ¤

NOTE: Video Research explains their system in more detail on their home page. In Kanto, for example, they calculate that 17 million households represent 40,000,000 people above the age of four years old. Thus, a 1% rating in Kanto represents 400,000 people. In Kansai, Video Research estimates there are 6.8 million households and 15.9 million people living in that area. Thus, here, 1% represents 159,000 people. In Nagoya, there are 3.5 million households with 9 million people. 1% represents 90,000 people. In Fukuoka-Saga, there are approximately 3 million households representing 7,500,000 people. 1% represents 75,000. Nationwide, 1% is equivalent to approximately 1.2 million viewers.

In Kansai, the Tigers average TV rating is around 12%, or 1,908,000 million per game. It hit 30%, or nearly 5 million viewers, when it won he pennant two years ago. In Chubu, the TV ratings these days have fallen since former manager Sennichi Hoshino left town and are around 16%, a little more than 1,500,000 fans per game. Present manager Hiromitsu Ochiai is not very popular. In Kyushu, the Hawks' ratings are around 15%, and hit 30% for some big games.

So far this year, scording to Video Research, the Giants had an average rating of 10.6% over 41 game casts in the period March to May 3007. Hanshin drew 12.2% over 42 games in Kansai, Chunichi drew 16.9% over 28 games in the Chubu area while Softbank drew 13.5% over 36 games in North Kyushu.

It is very difficult to get specific figures for non-terrestrial broadcasts. This year, a spokesman for Sky Perfect, the commercial satellite service, which offers "Puro Yakyu Setto," of all 864 games in a season, says only 7% of their 4.2 million subscriber households have purchased it. This means that at any one time, a maximum of 300,000 households, or 750,000 people, would be tuned in and their attention would be divided among the 12 NPB teams. (Sky Perfect also offers an MLB package, says the spokesman, but interest is lower than that for NPB games, because NHK monopolizes those big ticket games in which top Japanese players like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui participate.) NPB games are also part of the basic cable package, featuring 42 channels, which has some 20,000,000 subscribers. However, viewership data is scarce, as cable services do not provide numbers on which channels their subscribers are watching at a given instance. Rakuten's Marty Kuehnert, estimates that viewership of Eagles games which are included in SKY and CATV cable programming, averages around 150,000. An associate of TV Saitama, a UHF TV station which broadcasts Seibu Lions games, and which is also included in SKY and CATV programming, has a viewership of anywhere from 100,000 to 270,000 per contest, which he estimates that is more than Chiba TV, another UHF station, draws for its Lotte Marines game casts.

This following is what Pacific League teams charge for TV rights sales per game. SoftBank - 10 million yen, Nippon Ham - 3.8 million yen, Rakuten - 2-4.6 million yen, Seibu - 700,000 yen, Lotte - 150,000 yen, Orix - close to zero. The Giants charge 1-oku. The Tigers half of that. Chunichi charges 100,000, and Yakult, Yokohama, and Hiroshima are farther down the line. Any home game involving the Giants increases the sale value to 1-oku yen.

1983 was the Yomiuri Giants' best year on TV, when Kyojin games had an average rating of 27.2% in Kanto, and an estimated more than 30 million people countrywide watched each contest. When Matsui departed for the Yankees, ratings fell 12%, another 15% the following year and 17% the year after that. By June, 2007, the Giants ratings had fallen 44%, from where they were in Matsui's last year (16.2%), with a rating that month of 9.2%.

This is really excellent - I think it should have been your fourth article. Certain points do come to mind though. A lot of people do attribute the fall in popularity of the Giants to Matsui's departure but they still had Kiyohara at that time. He had and still has a popularity level similar if not greater than Matsui so I would suggest other factors played nearly as much a part as Matsui going.

What I find most interesting is that young fans are abandoning the Giants. By the time they get to university, they are no longer Giants fans and have adopted a lot of other interests. MLB doesn't figure for the majority beyond a liking of Ichiro (interest is much more focused on Ichiro than other Japanese stars at the moment). If these ex-fans return to baseball in later life they tend to adopt other teams or else remain dormant.

Giants strike me as having very little relevance to people's lives unlike say the Urawa Reds (football). I would say it is more a neglect of their fan base and a failure to anticipate a fragmentation of interests that has created the Giants' problems. Of course NTV doesn't help with unimaginative coverage and poor telecast planning. They are perhaps the worst of the television channels in terms of coverage and I would hazard the opinion that this is also another factor in the fall in viewing figures. Others have mentioned work, and this too must be taken into account - with the prolonged slump, working hours have increased enormously, and people are regularly finishing around 10 or 11pm, too late to watch games.

The stadium rentals are certainly a problem as you mentioned in your articles, and arrangements like that of MLB clubs would help. However, we cannot expect this from the kind of conservative management that manages the parent companies of the clubs.

Looking at the question of popularity, I think we run across a red herring. NPB is more popular in Japan than MLB and there can be no dispute about that. However, with regard to television figures (which I think is your point) this is often not the case. Why is difficult to explain, but if one considers the fact that most teams are connected to brand recognition of the parent company then we can see why. The name is all that matters and not necessarily the team. Thus no attempt is made to make the product attractive to viewers. MLB's approach is superior - they offer an attractive product. The regional model has only really taken root in Kansai (Hanshin) who do offer an attractive product with other clubs groping towards (Softbank, Rakuten, Nippon Ham, Chunichi, Yokohama, Lotte, Seibu) or not having any clue (Kyojin, Hiroshima, Yakult, Orix). It will take time to be established, if indeed it is at all, but it is needed to compete successfully with J-league (not MLB) as that is the main threat to NPB.

I am not surprised NHK shows MLB in the lobby - they invested a lot in their MLB package. Certain parties think that they spent too much and have to constantly show it to justify their spending. I am beginning to come across examples of viewer fatigue (the most famous example being the Finance Minister), but given the expenditure they can't really do anything else. NHK's main sporting interest is actually the Olympics (which is enormously expensive), but most of the influential Olympics people in Beijing are working towards 2008, so the MLB people are in the ascendancy in Japan. Insiders tell me that this is causing quite a bit of resentment, and there is a feeling that NHK is being made to look like a joke. However, the higher ups feel that focusing on Ichiro, Matsui, and the like will bring in ratings. It is more of a gut belief than soundly based because, as you note, ratings research is very rudimentary.

A final note - the loss of players like Fukudome is not anything to worry about. There are enough players of quality coming through the system to continue to maintain the levels. Furthermore I do not feel that Tuffy Rhodes is necessarily indicative of a lack of depth, MLB and NPB are different and require different skill sets. One player's skill set may not translate, or it may prosper in one league and not the other. NPB history is littered with MLB stars who failed miserably. Of course there are players who can adjust to both and play successfully in both, but this is because of their own personal qualities.

I would say, like you, that NPB's worst enemy is itself, but that the competition is not from outside Japan but internally. I would also say that, whilst the regional model is the way for NPB to go, it will take time to establish and may, for many clubs, not succeed. To establish a regional base requires a light touch and considerable finesse which is sadly lacking in the management of most of the NPB clubs.

NOTE: My NHK sources actually claim that most MLB telecasts normally attract around 400,000 viewers in Kanto and about 1.2 million country wide (most potential viewers are sleeping or playing with their children on the weekends). Of course the special games attract more, and if Matsuzaka reaches the 20 win mark, then expect another big spike. The current interest is Ichiro with Matsuzaka is a distant second. Matsui is third, and the other Japanese players attract very little interest. Iguchi and Johjima were never that popular, and the response with Iwamura is normally, "who?" It is very different from your sources and the question is, which ones are correct?

Bob,

Thank you for taking the time to write a very informative follow up to our discussion. While I share your enthusiasm for Japanese baseball and do agree, I have stated this many times, that while the end of the Yomiuri Giants' corrupt era is helpful to the sport, it may be too late.

The exodus of the stars to the MLB does not help, as you point out. Ratings for MLB coverage in Japan holds steady while NPB falls. Ichiro's preformance in the MLB All Star game has done more for the sport in Japan than anything from the NPB so far this season. I also thought Tuffy was washed up, but your point about his success at Orix demonstrating the weakness of the NPB is telling.

Again, it's nice to hear from an authority with the best facts at his fingertips. I hope your post ends up in print somewhere so that more can read it.

As for Christopher's continuing statements about NPB being more popular in Japan than the MLB, it must be nice for you that facts do not get in the way of your persistently wrong opinions.

- As for Christopher's continuing statements about NPB being more popular in Japan than the MLB, it must be nice for you that facts do not get in the way of your persistently wrong opinions.

A statement that MLB is more popular in Japan than NPB is a self-evident absurdity. Why? Firstly, you need to understand the background a bit better. The only thing popular about MLB in Japan are Japanese players. Keep this in mind before starting to analyze this issue. Asking a Japanese fan about MLB produces the answer "I'm an Ichiro fan" or (currently) "I'm a Kuwata fan," etc. The team is never mentioned and I have yet to hear anyone name an MLB team without any Japanese players. It is also rare for a Japanese fan to name the MLB team rather than the Japanese player. Furthermore, it is restricted to players who are doing well. Mentions of Matsui have fallen and Igawa is never mentioned. Ask them about their NPB team and everyone who names a team will name the team not the players. This is what NHK focuses on - not the American teams but the Japanese players. This phenomena is part of a national pride in Japanese doing well in a global environment. The same happens in other fields (Shizuka Arakawa in skating for example).

MLB does pull some Japanese players - however numbers are insignificant, and given the talent coming through, unimportant. MLB will only become a real threat if it starts to sign young Japanese directly from high school and university. This may happen in the future, but at the moment none of these considers MLB as a number 1 choice and this needs to be born in mind.

The main competitor to NPB is soccer, in particular J-League. This is where NPB will struggle to keep fans - it will not loose them to MLB. In particular young fans are deserting NPB to follow soccer. The J-League strategy of a team in every city has hit the Giants especially hard and is partially responsible for ending the "Team for Japan" strategy. J-League has had to remain innovative and competitive because it is a global sport unlike baseball. Ask a young Japanese soccer fan what team he likes and you may get answers like "I'm a Real fan" or "I'm a Manchester United fan" and this is where cable and satellite are penetrating. Young people are buying the packages to watch world-wide soccer teams not MLB. The big global teams can organize tours to Japan with the certainty of selling out stadiums. So J-League has to compete to retain fans and does so quite effectively.

A final note - do not be blinded by hype and over-exaggeration. The figures you so lovingly mention are (as Bob readily admits) tentative and not necessarily accurate. No one really knows because this sort of information is not recorded accurately. I quoted a different set of figures given to me by others - who is correct? To be honest I would say mine are because they do take into account the increasing popularity of soccer. Understand also that the market is fragmenting and it is fragmenting in a way that is quite complex and not along the lines of MLB vs. NPB. Of course, NPB is quite clueless about this, but then it has always been clueless. But it will loose its fan base to soccer and other interests, not to MLB. Try not to over-simplify - this is a fundamental mistake. The market is a complex beast and needs to be treated as such.

Considering how Christopher always enjoys pointing out the mistakes of others, we thought we should point out two of his. These particular errors are fairly common, of course, but it's surprising to see such a perfectionist being so careless.

- This is where NPB will struggle to keep fans - it will not loose them to MLB.

Loose them? Surely you mean "lose" them.

- ...and this needs to be born in mind.

Born? Try "borne."

[Moderator's Notes: I try to catch these errors, but I've become too tired of this topic to do the job properly, it seems. The blame is equally mine for not catching these typos. And having moderated for so long, I can't even begin to tell you how many people have problems differentiating there, their, and they're. A major reason for moderation (beyond spam) is to prevent arguments over grammar so that people can focus on the issues. I apologize for my own laziness in this case. - Michael Westbay - Moderator]

- that while the end of the Yomiuri Giants' corrupt era is helpful to the sport, it may be too late.

We went over this before zman last year. Anyone who has any knowledge of business knows that the NPB needs Yomiuri. As we debated to death last year, Yomiuri's decline is nowhere near a benefit for NPB, as for the most part the NPB has no idea at all of a business model except Yomiuri and Hanshin.

- As for Christopher's continuing statements about NPB being more popular in Japan than the MLB, it must be nice for you that facts do not get in the way of your persistently wrong opinions.

The MLB NHK TV stats also tell an empty story. Are Japanese really so interested in MLB as a whole or more interested in Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, and Daisuke Matsuzaka? Fans don't care if the Yankees are 8 games back. As mentioned above MLB broadcasts are often cut short if Matsuzaka, Ichiro, or Matsui aren't in the game. I advise you use caution on MLB ratings coverage, they, for the most part, tell an empty story.

One final thing, as mentioned above by Robert Whiting and Christopher, the NPB's worst enemy is itself not MLB. The conservative mentality of the NPB brass to reform has alienated and caused many fans to go dormant.

I have to repeat myself unfortunately as Christopher and Mr. Brooks seem to just not get it. It makes no difference why Japanese folks are watching MLB in larger numbers than the NPB, the fact is they are. If it is to see one player or two, that is really irrelevant.

Furthermore, as Bob points out, the drop in YGs ratings corresponds with the departure of Godzilla. Clearly people watch local teams to see the stars as well. I hope this ends the weak assertion that higher ratings don't count in this discussion. It is fantasy to assume that away, to avoid the simple fact that once again Christopher was wrong on fact.

Yes, Bob is cautious on his numbers but he cites sources while Christopher cites his friends at NHK. Since much of what Christopher has posted has not passed a simple test of accuracy, even though he may believe himself over Bob, I do not.

Last, I agree with Mr. Brooks that the NPB is its own worse enemy. The J-League is dropping ratings as well, perhaps in part for the reason that Christopher states about the popularity of the Premier League (which echoes my point about the MLB vis-a-vis the NPB, although Christopher seems to miss that entirely). Progress is being made in that the YG's franchise is no longer the same as the NPB, thank goodness, but it may be too late for the NPB to recover. I hope not. It depends on the kids playing ball now in high school. If they look to Ichiro and Matsui then the NPB will suffer, if they look to Darvish, Takahashi, Kanemoto then the NPB may hang on. I grew up a fan of Willy Mays, I am sure that my joy in watching him play as a boy has sustained my love of the MLB game all these years now.

I have to remind you that these figures you refer to are estimates and not givens. You speak of a simple test of accuracy, but this is not available for any figures we have been mentioning. I am citing people in NHK who cannot be named - Bob is citing ones who can. They give different versions. This, I'm afraid, is par for the course in Japan.

Basing your analysis on these is all very well, but it must be acknowledged that they are tentative. Furthermore, the reason something is watched is vital, especially from the marketing viewpoint. You need to know why people are interested in the product and why they purchase it. This is fundamental.

Now the departure of Matsui may have had a contributory effect, but it is too simplistic to attribute the fall entirely to his departure. If we look at the post-Matsui regime in which lots of big stars were brought in we do not see an increase in ratings. Matsui was not the only star in NPB with a following, I mentioned Kiyohara who has perhaps a bigger following. There are other factors involved, including a poor performing Giants team under a disastrous coach and working hours. This is under-estimated, but is vital.

Be very careful when you analyze this market - it is extremely complex and full of pitfalls for the unwary. The very philosophy of most teams is totally different to those in MLB. I have noticed a tendency to over-simplify and to talk too much about the evil of the Giants. This is not productive and ignores many important factors. Do not assume that the Japanese are homogeneous and all do the same thing. Furthermore, do understand that the Giants are still important to the success of NPB and that a strong NPB is also vital for baseball to become a global game.

- I have to remind you that these figures you refer to are estimates and not givens. You speak of a simple test of accuracy, but this is not available for any figures we have been mentioning. I am citing people in NHK who cannot be named - Bob is citing ones who can. They give different versions. This, I'm afraid, is par for the course in Japan.

I see, so the fact that you overstated the numbers for the NPB is due to the vagaries of Japan. Nice.

- Basing your analysis on these is all very well, but it must be acknowledged that they are tentative. Furthermore, the reason something is watched is vital, especially from the marketing viewpoint. You need to know why people are interested in the product and why they purchase it. This is fundamental.

I am sorry, fundamental to what? No need to answer really as condescension after being so wrong does not suit you.

- Now the departure of Matsui may have had a contributory effect, but it is too simplistic to attribute the fall entirely to his departure. If we look at the post-Matsui regime in which lots of big stars were brought in we do not see an increase in ratings. Matsui was not the only star in NPB with a following, I mentioned Kiyohara who has perhaps a bigger following. There are other factors involved, including a poor performing Giants team under a disastrous coach and working hours. This is under-estimated, but is vital.

OK, but pulling out Kiyohara to defend yourself is the last gasp of failure. Jim Allen calls him a cartoon player. To my mind he is the poster boy for the aging YGs fan who also know his/her time has run out.

- Be very careful when you analyze this market - it is extremely complex and full of pitfalls for the unwary. The very philosophy of most teams is totally different to those in MLB. I have noticed a tendency to over-simplify and to talk too much about the evil of the Giants. This is not productive and ignores many important factors. Do not assume that the Japanese are homogeneous and all do the same thing. Furthermore, do understand that the Giants are still important to the success of NPB and that a strong NPB is also vital for baseball to become a global game.

I have had enough of this dodging and weaving in a vain attempt to cover your misstatements. If you could simply admit your overstatements that have been clearly refuted by Bob and others you would merit continuing engagement.

Thanks again to Bob for stepping into this discussion and helping to clear the smoke. And to Michael for being tolerant of watching his fine creation go in directions that he may not enjoy himself.

Tomorrow the Tigers play the Dragons, the second half of the season starts. That is all that matters.

Nowhere have I given figures for NPB.

The reason it is fundamental is because if you don't understand the market you waste a lot of money.

[Editor's Note: This seems to be the context from which Christopher is arguing - a marketing perspective. I don't think that anyone else has been approaching this thread from such an angle, so I've snipped the rest of this rebuttal.]

Uhhhh. Excuse me, but what does this all have to do with Bobby V?