Matsui Struggling Against ML Pitching

Last I checked, the Yankees play a 162-game schedule, not a 45-game one. Save it until October, if not later.

While I'm also disappointed about his MLB showing so far, I am willing to give him some more time. After all, we know he has more power than Ichiro - and Ichiro has one more homer than Matsui right now.

I watched a few Yankees games this year and Matsui's hitting approach does seem interesting. For the premier power hitter in Japan, he sure seems willing to slap the ball the other way. This is not how he used to hit in Japan, is it?

One related question I'm wondering is whether there are any current sluggers in Japan who are dead pull-hitters like Bonds or Giambi? I know Oh used to command a Bonds like defensive shift so he must've pulled a lot. What about present day players?

- It just goes to show you there is a very big difference between pitching in NPB versus the pitching in MLB.

We forget that Ichiro faces the same pitching as Matsui and is doing fine. I still do not believe, on average, that MLB pitching is superior to NPB pitching. I think MLB's elite pitchers (RJ, Pedro, Rocket, etc.) are far superior to Japan's pitchers (and same goes for hitters), but the average MLB pitcher (like Bruce Chen, who Matsui faced tonight) is no better than a Yabu here.

Matsui is struggling now because, as you say, he is adjusting. I've also noticed he's pulling a lot lately, with many ground outs to 2nd. He started the year off hitting the other way, trying to get his timing, and I think he's now feeling comfortable enough to look for his power stroke. It will come. It's too early to say he's a disappointment. We should bring this up again in October....

The last two times I saw Matsui play on television he really looked antsy and tentative at the plate. His average is okay, about .270, but he doesn't appear to be either confident or aggressive up there lately. And, as someone said earlier, he has lately been attempting to yank hard stuff away, causing him to top easy groundouts to second.

Here's to hoping he gets hot in June.

Except that if you look at Bruce Chen's stuff (average fastball, good change-up, OK breaking ball), he's like a Darrell May clone! May certainly did alright pitching in Japan. The difference in pitching level is not as much as an average fan who knows nothing about NPB might be lead to believe, but it's certainly there (especially in velocity).

Matsusaka is one of the hardest throwers in Japan and his average fastball is in the high 140s, which is about 92-93 mph. That's only a "good" fastball in MLB. Even a slightly above average MLB starter like Jeff Weaver can throw 92-93 consistently (with those moving 2-seamers no less!). I know there are a lot of pitchers with overall good stuff in Japan (I still think Kudoh had the best hook in the world.), but velocity-wise, it's no contest.

- [...] but the average MLB pitcher (like Bruce Chen, who Matsui faced tonight) is no better than a Yabu here.

Well, I am very suprised to hear that. You are too optimistic or nationalistic. Like Yabu? No way. Bruce Chen was not afraid Matsui. Every pitcher here was worried about facing Matsui?

Nomo was a good pitcher there, not excellent, but I am sure he was the MVP each season in Japan. Right?

Yabu cannot pitch in the Majors. Look at Irabu.

Uehara, Matsuzaka, Ikawa (the best here) would be average MLB pitchers!

Hey, I picked up Matsui for my fantasy team in the hopes of all the hype about Japanese baseball players being as great as they are being true. Well, the truth be told, only the very best Japanese baseball players can make it in MLB. Take a look. Ichiro is great, don't get me wrong, but Godzilla is less than average. How many Japanese players are playing at the level of Ichiro? None. Ichiro is a leaf that has fallen in a vast lake. Ichiro is amazing. As is Barry, Pedro, Rocket, Big Mac, Sammy, Larry Walker, Nomar, Jeter, should I keep going?

Only Ichiro is even close. Matsui was the best player Japan had to offer after Ichiro left. I'm sorry, but he might emerge to be a good player, but he is not Ichiro, Sammy, Barry, or even Paul La Duca! Sorry, if this is the best Japanese baseball has to offer, Japan's officials need to do something to improve the level of play over there on the Islands. If the best player in Japan is merely and average player in MLB, how will the worst player do?

Just questions. But man, I passed on Adam Dunn to get Matsui... Just kidding... I passed on Choi to get Matsui.

I'm sorry, but your comment about MLB pitching is not true. First of all, Bruce Chen is not an "average" MLB pitcher -- he is considered to be poor-to-mediocre at best, and has failed several times, for several teams, when given a chance to be in the rotation.

Second, some very mediocre MLB hitters went to Japan and became sluggers. I was always amazed to read about some so-so MLB player going to Japan and hitting 45 or 50 home runs. I remember Leron Lee in particular when I was younger.

Japanese pitching is probably closer to the AAA level than to MLB.

I predicted before the season that Matsui would struggle, not with MLB velocity, but with MLB movement. Japanese pitchers prefer straight and true fastballs, MLB pitchers prefer fastballs that move. It's taking Matsui longer to adjust to these moving fastballs than it took Ichiro because Matsui doesn't have Ichiro's superhuman bat control.

I would expect Matsui to have a much better second half.

- I would expect Matsui to have a much better second half.

I agree. As of May 22, Matsui is batting .266, with 26 strikeouts and 13 walks in 192 at-bats. He is not in top 40 in strikeouts among American Leaguers. This shows that he's putting the ball in play. He's not driving the ball yet, but the power will come as he continues to adjust to the American League's pitchers.

I would be worried if he was striking out a lot. But he isn't.

Its still too early. I'm willing to give him the whole season to adjust. Maybe in the second season he'll come out strong. He is not struggling with the velocity. He is struggling with the moving fast ball. He publicly said that he wants to adjust to MLB pitching properly and he will give up HRs for it.

A couple of points:

1. I'm in the "it's too early" camp. He's got adjustments to make, which will take a while. That said, he certainly has taken a while, and it doesn't seem to be over yet.
2. I wonder if the fact he's a patient power hitter (wait for a mistake and crush it) might not be part of the explanation. He learned that approach over several years in Japan, and I doubt he can unlearn it now. He can adjust, but he's not going to see the same number of mistakes in the majors he did in Japan.
3. There's no question that MLB pitching is superior. Just look at the research I've done to project MLB equivalents for NPB performance. Other researchers have made similar findings. Whether it's the movement on fastballs, the speed, a combination of the above, or some other factor(s), I do not pretend to know, but it is there.

That said, Matsui should do better than this, and I suspect he will. I'm not sure his performance should have been expected to be worth the salary he's getting from Steinbrenner, but that's the Yankees' problem.

Jim Albright

I have been watching Matsui closely on TV and at the stadium. I agree most with Jim Albright. Being a patient power hitter, Matsui seems to be looking for mistake pitches to crush. And when he does not get them he tries to go the other way.

As far as the pitchers are concerned, there are 30 MLB teams so there are several great pitchers. At the same time, there are bad to average pitchers who tend to make mistakes or fall behind on the count and are forced to come in with fat pitches. So let's give him more time to adjust. At least until the All-Star break at July 15th.

People need to stop asking Matsui to hit .300, 50 HR, 100 RBI. He'll do it himself and doesn't need anyone to remind him. He'll probably end the season .280, 25 HR, 90+ RBI and that'll be good enough for me.

Don't forget the fact that Matsui is a notoriously slow starter. He wasn't exactly tearing up the CL this time last year. If memory serves, he didn't get his 10th home run until June, but he came on strong as the weather heated up and finished with 50. Not that he'll do that in the MLB, but give him some more time.

Well, in Japan, the strike zone for a Giants' player is significantly narrower than other team players. Thus, it takes him a longer time to adjust in Majors. Do you agree with me?

I'm no Matsui fan, and I'm disinclined to agree with the "let's wait and see" approach. I personally don't think that Matsui's overall skills are strong enough for him to be much more than a journeyman outfielder in the U.S. Imagine what his numbers would be be like right now if he was on a weak-hitting second division team instead of the Yankees.

That being said, though, I do think that one more factor that needs to be added to the three things listed by Jim Albright is that he has one heck of a lot more stadiums to learn to play in, as well. Whether in the field or at the plate, he didn't look at all comfortable at Fenway these past three games, so he still has one heck of an education ahead of him before we can pass final judgment.

You've got many good formulas, you must be good at mathematics.

Could you please give me some links to read all you posted. I am still new to baseball, I don't know much about seam-fastball, change-up, etc. Could you please tell me where I can read about that?

I'll assume that, at least in part, you're referring to my work. If not, please forgive my presumption. If you want to read my stuff, most of it can be accessed through The BaseballGuru.com. The section about me lists an article I did for the Big Bad Baseball Abstract site. The only stuff left over is in the files section of the j-ball site, which is also mentioned in the section about me.

I'll let someone else provide info on the various kinds of pitches and the like.

Back to Matsui. His stats thus far are only of journeyman levels. As pointed out, though, he is a slow starter, and he was dominant in Japan. The evidence is clear that the difference between the AL of MLB and the CL of NPB should not be anywhere near great enough to account for the difference in his play. The adjustments to his new surroundings are the most logical reason for this exaggerated change in level of play. Everything I've read about him suggests he should eventually be able to make any adjustments, and therefore show much improvement over the current level of performance. Also, I believe his performance against major leaguers when they visited Japan recently suggests he'll do better than this.

The only real benefits I see he gets from being with the Yankees are:

1. he's not as much a focus of attention as he would be on a team that's not playing well (but given the attention he's getting from back home, that's a small thing at most), and
2. he probably gets to hit a little more with players on base, which demonstrably helps some.

All other supposed benefits from being on a good team or protection from other batters have been examined in great detail, and the evidence shows very little effect from those supposed benefits.

Learning the parks could be an issue, but mostly defensively. Since that's not an area of complaint, I doubt it's anything more than another distraction, but of course, Matsui doesn't need more distractions, he needs less (if anything). He should have some idea by now how to hit in Yankee Stadium, where he'll play half the time, and he's rarely in another stadium long enough to really groove his approach to that stadium. Frankly, if he's trying to adapt to each and every stadium, he's thinking way too much -- and it could account for some of the difference in his performance.

Jim Albright

Mikevnjp-

I'm sure there are many places online where you can read about the different types of pitches, but here is a summary:

• 2-seam fastball: put two fingers across the close, parallel seams. Goes faster and will tend to not be straight.
• 4-seam fastball: put two fingers across the rounded parallel seams. Not as fast as the two-seam, but will go straight.
• Split finger fastball: try to fit the baseball between the index and middle finger and get it to tumble downward. Sometimes referred to as the "bottom falling out" of the ball as it drops very late. Also similar to a forkball.
• Curve ball: various grips, pitcher attempts to put topspin on the ball in an effort to make it move in a large, sweeping top to bottom movement.
• Slider/Cut Fastball: pitcher puts sidespin on the ball making it appear to move horizontally.
• Screwball: similar to a slider, but moves horizontally in the opposite direction.
• Change-Up: A pitch that is intended to confuse a hitter's timing where he sees the pitcher's motion look like a fastball, but the ball comes to the plate considerably slower and usually will move diagonally down and in to a right handed hitter. Frequently thrown from the pitcher's palm, or gripped with 4 or 5 fingers.
• Knuckleball: a pitch that is pushed out of the fingers toward the plate, causing a very irregular and unpredictable flight. Even the catcher isn't sure where it will end up.
• Eephus: Extremely rare. A pitch that is literally lobbed into the plate and can take an arc 20 feet (7 meters?) off the ground and through the strike zone. Very difficult for a hitter's timing.

Anybody care to join in, but I thought the 4 seam fastball was faster than the 2 seam fastball. More sinking action on the 2 seamer, but the 4 seamer is a more powerful pitch and could be thrown in the high 95-97 mph by MLB pitchers. In contrast the 2 seamer would be 90-94 mph.

How do these terms compare with Japanese pitch nomenclature?

One term that has always puzzled me is the Japanese term shu-to. I used to think that it was just a screwball, but there is a different Japanese word for that. Lately I've been wondering if it might not match up nicely with the term "back-door" slider.

I believe shu-to is a Japanese invention. I'm more inclined to think of it as something between a 2-seam fastball and a screwball.

Another pitch that seems to be unique to the Japanese is the huge and slow "sinker" from submariners such as Shiozaki and Takazu. I've never seen those in the Majors.

Others have already hit on it. I don't think I can stand any more weak grounders to second and first.

He's now hitting in the two hole with Bernie Williams out for a month+. I do think this will be very beneficial to him (look at youngsters Rocco Baldelli and Hank Blalock -- both new to the league, hitting in the two hole, and both hitting over .330).

Hideki will never have the impact Ichiro did, or Kaz will, but he will be a starting outfielder by MLB standards (just not anywhere near a superstar).

Nearly two months of play does not indicate how well any player will play. Willie Mays had a terrible start with the Giants in his rookie year. I don't know not how well Hideki Matsui will play, but just wait for the whole season to make a judgement.

Matsui should play his own game. Ichiro made MLB adjust to him, not the other way around - that is a sign of greatness.

Speaking of adjustments, one thing that did bother me before the season begun was how Matsui lowered his batting stance and changed his bat to adjust to the movements of MLB fastballs. He might have given MLB pitchers too much credit.

I've been thinking about another possibility. Matsui is very much your standard type hitter, i.e., work the count, wait for your pitch, etc. The fluid strike zone of the multiple MLB umpires may be giving him fits. Ichiro and Shinjo, being free swingers, effectively took the strike zone out of the equation for the most part. If they saw a pitch they liked, no matter where in or out of the zone, they swung at it.

It seems to me that Matsui is actually going through the learning curve people expected Ichiro to go through his first year. Most expected Ichiro to struggle for the first few months, put together a decent first year, but not really take off until his second year. Ichiro surprised everyone by how fast he took off (literally and figuratively). So Matsui's struggles may not be all that unusual in context, although they may seem frustrating given the expectations Ichiro and, to a lesser extent, Shinjo have created.

I've watched Matsui on TV at bat as a Tokyo Giant and now as a New York Yankee. It's pretty obvious, his compact swing is not there. The next time you see Matsui batting, record his at bat and review it. Take a good look at his hips. "No torque generated" and off balance. It seems that Matsui is lunging forward and weakly pulling the ball with no bat speed. That is why he has been grounding out to the right side. I beleive he needs to get back to the basics, hit the tee and take soft toss batting practice to get back into the Matsui groove and regain his compact swing.

Playball.

I saw Matsui during yesterday's batting practice session crush 7 balls into the stands. But that was against batting practice pitches.

During the real game the change of speeds and location has made him more timid in his swing. Almost seems like he is afraid to swing and miss frequently.

That's a good point. Back when the season just began, when the media were praising how good a hitter Matsui is. They were marvelling about how he rarely swings and misses. I guess that's part of the problem.

In terms of having to adjust to MLB pitching, there are a lot more pitchers to get adjusted to. The Yankees play 13 other teams in their league and there are also inter-league games. With each team having at least 5 starters, that's an awful lot of pitchers.

In Japan, the Giants play the 5 other teams in the Central League. So there are a lot of chances to get familiar with the pitchers. I would give him more time. He is not like Ichiro who can adjust like no other hitter I have seen except Rod Carew.

I am in New York city and read the newspapers regularly. Matsui was recently quoted as saying that he is still adjusting to MLB pitching; he said that MLB pitchers throw more changeups than do Japanese pitchers (who he said tend to throw more forkballs).

Also, one of the Yankee scouts seems to think that Matsui has backed off the plate since the season began. So, he's lost some agressiveness while he figures things out.

Let's give him a chance -- it's only been two months. He is never going to put up the kind of numbers for the Yankees that he did for the Giants, but he can be a productive hitter.

Steinbrenner slams Matsui in this article from the Daily Yomiuri.

Every power hitter on the New York Yankees is struggling. I believe that change in plate stance has hurt him. However, last night he hit for power to left field in the nineth. New York expects a lot of its players.

The story was different in Seattle with Pinnella. He let Ichiro hit the way he wanted, plus his hitting position (batting order) was a factor. Matsui has a lot of pressure on him. Give him until the fourth of July.

Matsui is probably the result of an over zealous hype machine in both countries. He is a premium hitter if only because, as a star for the Giants, he faced lower quality pitching than the Giants' rotation had. This gave him the opportunity to hit for power and put up impressive numbers.

Pitching in the States is the best in the world. There are no quotas as in other countries, only the very best get to pitch in the majors. Can Matsui hit? Yes.

As an ardent Yankees and Tokyo Giants hater, I hope he has a bad season, but personally, I kinda feel sorry for the guy. Too much hype and dribble from the management and media have made his position tough. Perhaps Nomo and Ichiro had the right approach in downplaying the media circus.

If George trades Masui to another team, I'll cheer for him. But while he's a Yankee, I hope he ends up with a .176 average. (Sorry Yankee fans, but you've already got Soriano, Jeter, Bernie, Roger and George's money.)

He also got help from Umpires.

First of all, the Yomirui Giants have not had the best pitching staff in the last couple of years. Last year, they did lead the league in pitching, but the year before, in 2001, they were last with an ERA of 4.45, 0.63 higher than the team with the next worst pitching, the Hiroshima Carp.

Secondly, Giants had such a great offense over the last five years with players like Matsui himself, Kiyohara, Takahashi, Etoh, and Shimizu that the other teams manipulated their rotations so that their best pitchers would always be facing the Giants.

Furthermore, whenever Matsui came up to bat and it was late in the game, teams often had change the pitcher to a lefty just for Matsui (e.g. Toyoma).

If anything, Matsui faced the toughest pitchers in the Central League.

That explains why pitchers here are so bad.

Last night an umpire helped the Giants again.

For those of us who said Matusi's early struggles weren't indicative of his ability, his recent 13 for 19 tear has given some support to our position by raising his average to .280, his OBP to .333, and his slugging to .421. The average is close to where it should be, but the walks and homers are still rather low for him. He does have 22 doubles (which translates to about 55 for the season), so there's hope there as well, just turn some of those doubles into homers. Finally, his stats look like a real major league starter at least.

Jim Albright

I was at Wrigley last Saturday for the Cubs-Yankees game. Great day. Not only did my Cubbies win in dramatic fashion, but I got to see Godzilla absolutely crush a home run off Kerry Wood, who struck out 11 in 7-2/3 innings and allowed only 3 hits -- 2 to Hideki, who went 3 for 4 on the day. Not bad at all.

I haven't seen any Matsui bashing posts recently. Could it be because he's hitting .409/.469/.773 for the month of June so far, and .545/.583/.909 for the past week? Perhaps the Matsui-needs-time-to-adjust crowd had a point, eh?

This is what makes baseball interesting. The media and some fans in NY were screaming to sit Matsui down. Now he has raised his average from .249 to .289.

Just like the fans ripping the Yankees after having been no-hit by 6 pitchers, now the Yankees have won 5 straight games.

I got ahead of myself. They have won 4 in a row.

Go Matsui!!!

Well, as most of us know, he is killing the National League pitching right now. As of June 14th, against National League pitching, he is 19 for 41 which is a .460 batting average with 4 home runs and 16 RBIs.

The Yankees should trade Matsui to my favorite team, the San Francisco Giants, so that Matsui can get a regular diet of National League pitching. Perhaps, the Giants can trade Bernard (SF Giants fans will see the sarcasm).

I believe the correct HR count is 3. He has 6 for the whole season.

Matsui now has the highest batting average among all of the regular Yankee players (60 or more games). Despite not hitting too many homers, his RBI production has been really good. Certainly seems to be adjusting quite well.

Although Matsui was comfortable being in the spotlight in Tokyo, and it might seem reasonable to expect that he'd feel the same in New York, I think part of his problem has been dealing with the expectations, the spotlight in a foreign land, the responsibility of being "the Japanese slugger." Ichiro's success may have added to the pressure rather than eased it.

I'm no Yomiuri fan, but I'm rooting for Matsui, and I think when he's done in the US, he'll have proven his critics and the doubters wrong. He's a tremendous hitter, and once he clears everything else from his mind and just hits, he'll excel.

In fact, because I so loved my time in Japan and the way the Japanese people treated me, because I so enjoyed going to CL and PL games, I root as ardently for the Japanese players in the U.S. as does any Japanese fan.

Eric

Boy, I guess you guys are eating your words.

A disappointing report on Kaz from Mike Piazza: Of his fellow injured teammates also rehabbing in Florida, Piazza gave a poor assessment of Kaz Matsui (back). "Kaz didn't look like he was feeling any better," Piazza said.

How long has Kaz been out with a bad back in the past?
Is Kaz broken in more than one way?

- How long has Kaz been out with a bad back in the past?

Actually, Kazuo holds the fifth longest consecutive game streak in Japan at 1,143 games between July 22, 1995 to October 5, 2003 (and continuing if he returns to Japan). This is the Pacific League record.

Thank you for pointing out his consecutive streak record. Kaz was quoted as saying that he has had back pain in the past, but I guess not so bad to keep him from playing. It was also reported that even though he was taking rollers at second and taking batting practice, he did not take physical therapy for his back until yeaterday. This was after more than two weeks of rehabbing in Florida, which is unusual.

I am more concerned with his psyche right now than his back. He seemed like a gamer, but I wonder if the pressure has gotten to him.