Dae Sung Koo signs with the Mets

Well, a good place to start will be with his stats. He was the second best pitching in the Pacific League in 2002, despite having a losing record. On the other hand, he had a much higher winning percentage than his team between 2001 and 2003, .001 above in 2004.

I've only seen him pitch on TV a couple of times, but don't have any distinct impression about him.

Here's what his major league equivalents for the past four years are: [Link - Baseball Guru]

I am just wondering why his agent was quoted as saying he had a deal with the Yankees back in December. The Yankees denied it twice. In fact the Yankees had no roster spot for him.

Maybe to jack up his value like what Scott Boras is doing for Beltran?

Saying that the Yankees are interested is one thing, but to say he already signed a contract is odd. Maybe something was lost in the translation.

His agent thinks he is Scott Boras.

He had no deal with the Yanks, only verbal interest. Koo wanted an answer by January 3 and the Yanks were silent, chasing a bigger fish named Randy Johnson. He then went to the Mets, who with the Padres has some interest.

He is said to have a wicked forkball. That he did not leave a lasting impression on Mr. Westbay is not encouraging.

Please don't let my lack of impression discourage you. I was most likely cheering for Lotte or Kintetsu, focusing on the batter more than the pitcher. I was watching as a fan, not a scout.

- He is said to have a wicked forkball. That he did not leave a lasting impression on Mr. Westbay is not encouraging.

I can understand why some people are wondering how MLB teams are interested in Koo. I rarely see Orix games on TV, and even in the highlights Koo didn't get much coverage. The only thing we had to go on are his stats.

Now that he's gone on to MLB, even now I doubt we'll get to see any highlights of him because he's not Japanese. Although I hope I'm wrong about this.

I am trying to get in touch with Koo Dae-Sung and his family as I am a family friend who spent two years with them in Japan. I am in North America and have lost contact with them since they left Japan as I have also moved. Would the Mets' management be able to pass on my contact info to them? I would like to help them settle in New York.

Borisov-san (of the great Pro Yakyu news site from Russia) had just answered this question in an e-mail and sent me his reply for posting.

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Below are three-year L/R splits for Koo and the Pacific League as a whole, Koo's yearly splits, batted ball type breakdowns for both Koo and PL lefthanders in 2004, plus two graphs showing his pitching vs RH and LH hitters.

L/R Splits 2002-2004
Team Th  Pitcher vs    BA   SLG   OBP   OPS   GPA   K/W   PA    AB    H   2B  3B  HR   BB  IW   SO  HP  SH  SF  IO
OBW   L  Koo      L  .236  .339  .284  .624  .213  3.84   439   398   94   9   1  10   25   0   96   3   9   3   1
OBW   L  Koo      R  .256  .458  .339  .797  .267  2.26  1193  1032  264  47   6  50  117   1  265  15  25   4   0

Pacific League L/R Splits 2002-2004
Th  vs   BA    SLG   OBP   OPS   GPA   K/W   PA     AB      H    2B    3B  HR     BB    IW   SO    HP   SH   SF  IO
 L   R  .272  .445  .349  .793  .268  1.86  15626  13595  3697   739   65   493  1508  105  2810  138  297   86   2
 R   L  .277  .431  .345  .776  .263  1.90  34469  30471  8448  1624  200   892  2927  158  5561  318  550  200   3
 R   R  .262  .430  .326  .757  .254  2.38  37563  33259  8725  1677  110  1229  2832  149  6749  447  785  235   5
 L   L  .269  .398  .341  .740  .253  2.10   8393   7319  1969   346   38   175   703   13  1475  124  196   49   2

Yearly L/R Splits
Year  Team  Th  Pitcher  vs    BA   SLG   OBP   OPS   GPA   K/W   PA   AB   H  2B  3B  HR  BB  IW   SO  HP  SH  SF  IO
2002  OBW    L  Koo       L  .208  .302  .253  .555  .189  4.88  162  149  31   5   0   3   8   0   39   1   3   0   1
2002  OBW    L  Koo       R  .233  .366  .305  .671  .229  2.69  446  391  91  16   3  10  39   1  105   2  13   1   0
2003  OBW    L  Koo       L  .295  .439  .329  .768  .258  4.00  153  139  41   3   1   5   7   0   28   1   4   2   0
2003  OBW    L  Koo       R  .287  .532  .384  .915  .306  2.05  369  314  90  19   2  18  44   0   90   6   4   1   0
2004  OBW    L  Koo       L  .200  .264  .270  .534  .188  2.90  124  110  22   1   0   2  10   0   29   1   2   1   0
2004  OBW    L  Koo       R  .254  .498  .335  .834  .275  2.06  378  327  83  12   1  22  34   0   70   7   8   2   0

Koo 2004 BBT Breakdown
Pitcher  Th  vs  PitchType  G   P   F   L  Total  G%   P%   F%   L%
Koo       L   L  Fastball  23   4  16   7    50  46%   8%  32%  14%
Koo       L   L  Other     14   2   5   5    26  54%   8%  19%  19%
Koo       L   R  Fastball  32  18  65  15   130  25%  14%  50%  12%
Koo       L   R  Other     58  11  40  11   120  48%   9%  33%   9%

Pacific League 2004 BBT Breakdown
Th  vs  PitchType  G    P    F    L  Total   G%   P%   F%   L%
L    L  Fastball  519   67  268  124   978  53%   7%  27%  13%
L    L  Other     387   73  248   90   798  48%   9%  31%  11%
L    R  Fastball  626  178  649  196  1649  38%  11%  39%  12%
L    R  Other     729  128  506  228  1591  46%   8%  32%  14%

Koo vs. LHB


Koo vs. RHB


I won't say any more right now except that Koo basicly appears to be an average left handed pitcher vs. NPB right handers, while holding NPB lefties in check.

Wow! Where is it possible to get the information shown in the last message? I tried to check Borisov-san's web site, but I couldn't come up with the information.

Important note concerning the breakdowns by batted ball type (BBT) above: due to data limitations (no BBT info for long hits), extra-base hits were counted as fly balls. Thus, the line drive percentages were somewhat lower than in reality.

Speaking of basic splits for individual batters - L/R, by ballpark, inning, vs pitcher, etc. - the data for 2002-04 can be found (in Japanese) at the following location: [Link - Ohsawa's Unofficial Baseball Statistics]

Everything else, including BBTs, pitch-by-pitch aggregate data, is not openly available online. You'll need to gather game data, at-bat by at-bat, on a daily basis throughout the season and process the bits into database format, just like I did.

Of course, the quality of DataStadium live pitch-by-pitch web presentation over at Yahoo or Nifty might be subpar to what they actually supply to NPB clubs.

Borisov-san followed his last message up with the following information:

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Here's additional info on Koo pitch arsenal (see tables below) based on 2001 and 2004 data.

But first, some notes:

• Koo was coming off a career of ace reliever/closer in Korea before joining Orix in 2001.


• He impressed many with his Sydney Olympic performance in 2000.


• He was used primarily out of the bullpen in his first year in Japan as a "two-inning closer" (kind of like how Mariano Rivera is used in the playoffs): 51 games, 8 starts, 32 games finished, ~126 IP.


• Koo converted to being a starter after the 2001 campaign, making only one relief appearance in 2002-04, thus he had to face all the Pacific League's best right-handers, while weak left-handers, I guess, took a sit against him as the Pacific League announces starting pitchers before the game just like in MLB.


• Koo played for the dreadful BlueWave, in a losing environment. Orix was more like a minor league team in 2003 and 2004. He never had to face his own perennially weak offense.


• Despite Kobe Green Stadium having the only grass infield (which theoretically should help the infielders) Orix pitchers and defense were horrible in 2003 and 2004, posting BABIPs (not counting home runs) of .339 and .330, respectively. The next worst mark in 2001-2004 belonged to Kintetsu - .319 in 2004.


• BlueWave BABIPS were much better in 2001-02 at .294 and .292, but was only good for the middle of the pack at the time.


• During Koo's stay, Orix was last in BABIP over the last four seasons:

  Opp	BAbip
  OBW	.314
  KB	.308
  FDH	.307
  SL	.299
  CLM	.298
  NHF	.296



• Speaking of groundball defense, according to 2004 data, Pacific League teams allowed a .258 average off fastballs and .208 average off other pitches.


• Orix defense yielded .292 opponents' average off of fastballs and .240 OBA off others.


• Koo's pitch arsenal based on 2004 data and somewhat confirmed by 2001 final pitch data:
  
  vs. Right Handers: fastball (62%), slider (20%), changeup (12%), forkball (3%).
  
  vs Left Handers: fastball (65%), slider (31%), curve (4%).
  
  Average velocities:
  
  Fastball - 138 km/h
  Slider - 124 km/h
  Curve - 111 km/h


• He went to his fastball more often then the average Japanese pitcher.

Now back to the tables.

Koo posted worse opponent SLG numbers in 2004 than in 2001, with the biggest problem being giving up homers to RH batters, especially on breaking balls. Koo gave up the same BAbip and SLGbip off fastballs as in 2001.

Despite, his gopheritis vs RHB of late, he posted Pacific League average numbers for LHP vs. RHB over 2002-2004 time span.

All in all, Koo might be a little weaker to be a major league long reliever/fifth starter, and that's I think where his extra value should come from in ideal situation.

2001      AB  H 2B&3B HR BB  SO  BA  BAbip* SLG* SLGbip*
Fastball 246 44   6   11 56  84 .179 .272  .340  .516
Curve      5  2   0    0  0   1 .400 .500  .400  .500
Shuuto     1  0   0    0  0   0 .000 .000  .000  .000
Slider   153 43   7    3 17  48 .281 .410  .390  .569
Forkball  13  4   0    0  1   2 .308 .364  .308  .364
Sinker    21  1   0    0  0   7 .048 .071  .048  .071
Change Up 17  2   1    0  1   1 .118 .125  .182  .194
Totals   456 96 1 4   14 75 143 .211 .307  .336  .490
                     
2004    AB H 2B&3B HR BB SO  BA  BAbip* SLG* SLGbip*
C       10  3  0    2  1  1 .300 .333  .900  1.000
CH      47 12  1    3  2  6 .255 .293  .470  .539
F      238 51  8   11 31 59 .214 .285  .390  .518
FK       9  3  0    0  1  2 .333 .429  .333  .429
SL     105 28  3    7  6 19 .267 .326  .498  .608
Totals 409 97 12   23 41 87 .237 .301  .438  .557

Note: BIPs include HRs; TB computed as H + 1.1*(2B+3B) + 3*HR

FWIW, Massada's "Super Scouting Report 2002-2003" shows Koo snuffing righthanders (.188) and having considerably more trouble with lefties (.260) during the 2001 season.

Also, while Kazuo Matsui and Alex Cabrera each hit less than a buck against him in 2001, he was hammered big time by Nobuhiko Matsunaka (.364), Yuji Yoshioka (.429), and Noriyoshi Ohmichi (.571).

Make of all that what you will.

Garland-san,

Does the scouting guide provide any more details, like number of PAs, opponents' SLG, OBP, walk and strikeout rates? Or was it - I mean, the book - just another attempt to sell to the public a particular hitter's batting average off, say, down-the-middle fastballs, only not mentioning it was only 20 ABs?

The breakdowns in the book have batting average according to count, base running situations, and percentage of hits given up and outs for each pitch in his repetoire.