Japanese Hitters

Welcome.

First of all, Kazuo, while he does have some power, is more known for getting on base and getting around. Seibu sufferred a couple of years without that big hitter to bring him around, but appears to have recovered this year (now that Higashio-kantoku [kantoku is his title, meaning "manager"] is gone). So far this season, the switch hitting "Little Matsui" is ranked 3rd in batting with a .321 average and leads both leagues with 59 runs scored. He also leads both leagues in stolen bases with 18 and the Pacific League in doubles with 26. He gets on and gets around.

As for Godzilla, he's tied for 2nd in the Central League home run race with 18 right now and is batting .327, good for 5th place. He leads the Central League in runs scored with 56 and on base percentage (.437) due to his both league leading 52 bases on balls. He's the #4 batter for a team full of #4 batters.

So, for home runs, it's just Hideki that you want to study further. And actually, that's been done to an extent on this thread. The conclusion of statistical annalysis based on players who have played in both the Majors and Japan with a certain number of at bats is that he'll drop to 21 home runs while batting .298. Of course, the problem with the study is that it isn't an analysis of home run hitters, but rather of 66 players who had played in both leagues and met certain criteria.

I'd love to see him smash all of the poor predictions that I'm sure he'll get from the mainstream North American press. Godzilla shall be the last one standing.

Interesting prediction Michael-san. But you were more right about Ichiro (we both thought he would be successful, but Michael was closer to the extent of it whereas I was a little more conservative).

As for what Kazuo Matsui will do, again I think the Barry Larkin analogy is quite apt. The PL Gakuen graduate has also been working on backlegging the ball and as he faces higher velocity pitching I think his power will increase (especially if he goes to an American League team). I would expect a consistent 20-25 homers from him in MLB and hit .280-300. If he learns to walk more, that will make him even better. He's on pace for about 30 homers this season in Japan, so he may join the rarified .300-30-30 club.

I just have to disagree about Godzilla, though. Sorry.

Actually, the biggest disappointment to me this season is Komiyama. I thought that he would have a chance to be the Mets version of Shigetoshi Hasegawa (who says he wants to pitch until he's 45), but that hasn't panned out at all. C'mon Satoru, let's step it up!